{"generated":"2026-10-08T16:32:02+02:00","total_count":103,"site":{"title":"Philipp D. Dubach","url":"https://philippdubach.com/","author":"Philipp D. Dubach","description":"Independent writing and research on AI and markets: the economics of models and compute, quantitative finance, and macro."},"posts":[{"id":"915e2e0ff10220c32bedd63f1bf8eab4","slug":"future-of-knowledge-inside-the-enterprise","title":"The Future of Knowledge Inside the Enterprise","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/future-of-knowledge-inside-the-enterprise/","description":"Enterprise knowledge management could connect shared experience to AI agents, helping teams make decisions, execute work and retain expertise.","date_published":"2026-10-05","date_modified":"2026-10-05","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["enterprise knowledge management","AI knowledge management","institutional knowledge retention","AI agents for knowledge management","enterprise AI operating model","enterprise AI brain","organisational memory","knowledge transfer","tacit knowledge","decision context","decision provenance","knowledge silos","AI agent governance","human judgment","knowledge reuse","enterprise AI strategy","enterprise intelligence","AI business value","employee onboarding","knowledge management ROI"],"word_count":1912,"reading_time_minutes":10,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/enterprise-knowledge-cover-fd73d49829.png","summary":"Enterprise knowledge management could connect shared experience to AI agents, helping teams make decisions, execute work and retain expertise."},{"id":"6ca8c577d4062f9ff08d517cd59a48fd","slug":"john-cochranes-lesson-on-inflation","title":"John Cochrane’s Lesson on Inflation","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/john-cochranes-lesson-on-inflation/","description":"John Cochrane’s inflation lecture connects fiscal theory, government debt and interest rates. I examine the argument and its implications for AI investment.","date_published":"2026-10-03","date_modified":"2026-10-03","type":"Analysis","categories":["Macro","Economics","AI"],"keywords":["John Cochrane inflation","fiscal theory of the price level","government debt and inflation","John Cochrane Karl Brunner lecture","interest rates and fiscal policy","fiscal backing","primary government surpluses","price level and inflation","inflation expectations","monetary policy","government interest costs","quantitative easing","zero interest rates","pandemic inflation","nominal government liabilities","debt sustainability","AI capital expenditure","AI productivity","public guarantees","contingent liabilities"],"word_count":2256,"reading_time_minutes":11,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/cochrane-2025-lecture-cover.jpg","summary":"John Cochrane’s inflation lecture connects fiscal theory, government debt and interest rates. I examine the argument and its implications for AI investment."},{"id":"fe3e9b1637c20ce7912d0085962abe6b","slug":"saved-links-to-personal-podcast","title":"How I turn my linkblog into a personalized podcast","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/saved-links-to-personal-podcast/","description":"I turn saved articles into a personal AI podcast with research agents, outside reading and ElevenLabs v4. The post includes the workflow and finished episode.","date_published":"2026-10-02","date_modified":"2026-10-02","type":"Project","categories":["AI","Tech"],"keywords":["personal AI podcast","turn articles into podcasts","ElevenLabs podcast","AI podcast workflow","iOS Shortcut save links","reading list to podcast","saved articles to audio","research agents","ElevenLabs v4","text to speech","podcast script","synthetic narration","outside reading","source verification","iOS share sheet","Cloudflare Workers","Cloudflare D1","MP3 podcast","podcast chapters","audio transcription"],"word_count":362,"reading_time_minutes":2,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/reading-radar-podcast-cover.png","summary":"I turn saved articles into a personal AI podcast with research agents, outside reading and ElevenLabs v4. The post includes the workflow and finished episode."},{"id":"a15ff93e89fbe137972acb30e372f03c","slug":"jev-model-router-for-pi","title":"Choosing a Model on the Pareto Frontier with Jev","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/jev-model-router-for-pi/","description":"A task-level LLM router for pi: Jev classifies the task, a role policy filters the OpenRouter catalogue, and a value function picks from the Pareto frontier.","date_published":"2026-09-20","date_modified":"2026-09-28","type":"Project","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["LLM model routing","Pareto frontier model selection","knee point Pareto front","is model routing a convex optimization problem","pi coding agent model router","Jev model router","Jev System One model","TypeSafe Jev","Jev task classification","pi Jev extension","multi-objective model selection","weighted Chebyshev scalarisation","epsilon constraint routing","OpenRouter catalogue","Artificial Analysis coding index","EQ-Bench writing quality","LLM cost per task","quality cost frontier"],"word_count":2358,"reading_time_minutes":12,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/pi-jev-router-pareto-frontier-v3.png","summary":"A task-level LLM router for pi: Jev classifies the task, a role policy filters the OpenRouter catalogue, and a value function picks from the Pareto frontier."},{"id":"4b64d9d22ead17d7ff57c7ceeace5751","slug":"maybe-meta-is-right-about-ai","title":"Maybe Meta Is Right About AI, or at Least Jeremy Stern Is","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/maybe-meta-is-right-about-ai/","description":"Meta AI strategy may benefit from model commoditization. Jeremy Stern shows how distribution and advertising can matter more than having the best model.","date_published":"2026-09-20","date_modified":"2026-09-20","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["Meta AI strategy","AI model commoditization","Mark Zuckerberg AI strategy","Meta AI competitive advantage","AI model economics","Meta model strategy","AI model pricing power","model layer commoditization","Meta AI advertising","AI distribution advantage","frontier AI models","Meta versus OpenAI","Meta versus Anthropic","OpenAI commoditization","Anthropic commoditization","AI infrastructure strategy","AI business models","Meta AI monetization","does Meta need the best AI model","where AI value accrues","AI moat","Jeremy Stern Mark Zuckerberg"],"word_count":507,"reading_time_minutes":3,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/jeremy-stern-zuckerberg-portrait-article-cover.png","summary":"Meta AI strategy may benefit from model commoditization. Jeremy Stern shows how distribution and advertising can matter more than having the best model."},{"id":"6a7df8e5b2f355acaa7b675e7abfb0ff","slug":"","title":"AI Consciousness Is Not a Safety Property","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-consciousness-is-not-a-safety-property/","description":"AI consciousness cannot be settled by safety concerns. A skeptical look at model welfare, LLM self-reports and systems that may become harder to dismiss.","date_published":"2026-09-17","date_modified":"2026-09-17","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["AI consciousness","model welfare","LLM consciousness","machine consciousness","artificial sentience","is AI conscious","can AI be conscious","are AI models conscious","can LLMs be conscious","AI consciousness test","AI consciousness debate","Anthropic model welfare","Claude consciousness","AI self-reports","AI moral patienthood","AI rights","AI welfare","AI welfare policy","consciousness indicators","Mustafa Suleyman model welfare"],"word_count":1936,"reading_time_minutes":10,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ai-consciousness-is-not-a-safety-property-cover.png","summary":"AI consciousness cannot be settled by safety concerns. A skeptical look at model welfare, LLM self-reports and systems that may become harder to dismiss."},{"id":"0994a657e58d7829cacc29ffbbf5bb34","slug":"llm-performance-cost-speed-sweet-spot","title":"Finding the Performance–Cost–Speed Sweet Spot With LLMs","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/llm-performance-cost-speed-sweet-spot/","description":"I compared every GPT-5.6 Sol reasoning effort across intelligence, cost, latency and total working time. High in Fast mode became my default for daily work.","date_published":"2026-08-30","date_modified":"2026-08-30","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["GPT-5.6 Sol reasoning effort","GPT-5.6 Sol High","GPT-5.6 Sol Fast mode","GPT-5.6 Sol Max vs Xhigh","GPT-5.6 Sol vs Claude Opus 5","best GPT-5.6 reasoning level","GPT-5.6 Sol cost","GPT-5.6 Sol benchmarks","GPT-5.6 Sol speed","GPT-5.6 reasoning settings","LLM cost performance","LLM latency","time to first token","reasoning effort benchmarks","Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index","Codex Ultra mode","OpenAI Fast mode","Claude Opus 5","inference-time compute","AI coding productivity"],"word_count":603,"reading_time_minutes":3,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/openai_vs_anthropic_time_light.png","summary":"I compared every GPT-5.6 Sol reasoning effort across intelligence, cost, latency and total working time. High in Fast mode became my default for daily work."},{"id":"e37ff4822db14e7670c77a6e1909659f","slug":"openai-hugging-face-incident-plain-english","title":"The OpenAI–Hugging Face Incident in Plain English","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/openai-hugging-face-incident-plain-english/","description":"The OpenAI–Hugging Face incident involved about 17,600 recovered agent actions. The disclosures distinguish access, software changes and evaluation controls.","date_published":"2026-08-16","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["OpenAI Hugging Face incident","Hugging Face security incident July 2026","AI agent security incident","AI agent evaluation containment","17,600 agent actions","Hugging Face security incident","OpenAI model evaluation","AI agent sandbox escape","ExploitGym evaluation","GPT-5.6 Sol","cyber capability evaluation","evaluation cheating","benchmark cheating","Internet egress","package proxy security","production security boundaries","AI agent incident response","AI agent monitoring","software supply chain security","Simplified Technical English"],"word_count":1600,"reading_time_minutes":8,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,quality=85,format=jpeg/openai-hugging-face-incident-cover-v2.png","summary":"The OpenAI–Hugging Face incident involved about 17,600 recovered agent actions. The disclosures distinguish access, software changes and evaluation controls."},{"id":"bf4dc0ccd7ef78c9ac5ff288a5e25ef5","slug":"put-the-model-in-the-basement","title":"Put the Model in the Basement","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/put-the-model-in-the-basement/","description":"Test a Swiss sovereign AI business case: a 64-GPU local inference cluster, $7 million initial cost, 70% use, CHF 7.4 million revenue, and three-year payback.","date_published":"2026-08-15","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["Swiss sovereign AI","Swiss AI sovereignty","on-premise AI inference","private AI deployment","Swiss data residency","local AI inference","Swiss AI infrastructure","sovereign AI business case","K3-class inference","open-weight model hosting","64-GPU cluster","AI inference economics","private LLM hosting","Swiss cloud AI","AI data residency","inference residency","regulated industry AI","banking AI infrastructure","AI infrastructure payback","managed AI inference"],"word_count":411,"reading_time_minutes":2,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/mode-basement-cover-image.png","summary":"Test a Swiss sovereign AI business case: a 64-GPU local inference cluster, $7 million initial cost, 70% use, CHF 7.4 million revenue, and three-year payback."},{"id":"a7d81e97de6d553163f4752aafb4cc11","slug":"kimi-k3-inside-claude-code","title":"I Tried Kimi K3 Inside Claude Code","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/kimi-k3-inside-claude-code/","description":"I tested Kimi K3 in Claude Code through OpenRouter and rebuilt a frontend for $7.18, then compared fixed-token-mix Claude costs and open-weight economics.","date_published":"2026-07-19","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Experiment","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["Kimi K3","Kimi K3 Claude Code","Kimi K3 review","Kimi K3 vs Claude","Kimi K3 open weights","Moonshot AI Kimi K3","Kimi K3 pricing","Kimi K3 coding","OpenRouter Kimi K3","Claude Code alternative model","Kimi K3 frontend test","AI coding model comparison","2.8 trillion parameter model","mixture-of-experts model","one million token context","Claude Opus 4.8","Claude Fable 5","open-weight AI economics","sovereign AI","on-premise AI"],"word_count":1882,"reading_time_minutes":9,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/kimi-k3-cover1.png","summary":"I tested Kimi K3 in Claude Code through OpenRouter and rebuilt a frontend for $7.18, then compared fixed-token-mix Claude costs and open-weight economics."},{"id":"cbf535eca527e6f8fe35fc04bb8c164c","slug":"krugman-fable5-europe-decline","title":"Krugman, Fable 5, and Europe in Decline?","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/krugman-fable5-europe-decline/","description":"European tech sovereignty became concrete when US export controls shut off Fable 5 worldwide. The deeper risk is revocable access to AI, cloud, and chips.","date_published":"2026-06-22","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI","Macro"],"keywords":["European tech sovereignty","European AI sovereignty","AI kill switch Europe","US AI export controls","Europe US productivity gap","Fable 5 shutdown","Anthropic Fable 5","frontier AI access","AI Diffusion Rule","weaponised interdependence","European cloud sovereignty","AI compute gap Europe","ASML EUV lithography","EU Chips Act 2.0","Cloud and AI Development Act","Draghi report","sovereign AI Europe","open-weight models","technology chokepoints","European economic decline"],"word_count":1383,"reading_time_minutes":7,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/cover-fable5-europe-decline1.png","summary":"European tech sovereignty became concrete when US export controls shut off Fable 5 worldwide. The deeper risk is revocable access to AI, cloud, and chips."},{"id":"03c5b78870ae558c7db6e0539577b429","slug":"","title":"Degoogling cost me my YouTube feed, so I made my own","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/degoogling-cost-me-my-youtube-feed-so-i-made-my-own/","description":"I built a self-hosted YouTube subscription feed with public RSS, no API key, Shorts filtering, privacy-enhanced embeds, caching, and timeouts.","date_published":"2026-06-14","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Project","categories":["Tech"],"keywords":["self-hosted YouTube subscription feed","YouTube subscriptions RSS feed","YouTube RSS feed without API key","watch YouTube without Google account","filter YouTube Shorts from RSS","degoogle YouTube","YouTube channel RSS feed","YouTube feeds videos.xml","YouTube subscription feed alternative","Cloudflare Worker RSS reader","YouTube Atom feed","YouTube privacy-enhanced embed","youtube-nocookie","YouTube picture-in-picture","Cloudflare KV","Cloudflare Cache API","fast-xml-parser","self-hosted YouTube frontend"],"word_count":554,"reading_time_minutes":3,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/degoogle-youtube-feed-cover.png","summary":"I built a self-hosted YouTube subscription feed with public RSS, no API key, Shorts filtering, privacy-enhanced embeds, caching, and timeouts."},{"id":"a6c7bcda4bb854bac9d948cf28d1bd03","slug":"midyear-portfolio-review-the-rotation-worked-europe-didnt","title":"Midyear Portfolio Review: Valuations got more extreme, not less","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/midyear-portfolio-review-the-rotation-worked-europe-didnt/","description":"My 2026 midyear portfolio review tracks a 5.2% CHF gain against global 60/40 and the S\u0026P 500, the calls that failed, and three allocation changes.","date_published":"2026-05-31","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Analysis","categories":["Investing"],"keywords":["midyear portfolio review 2026","portfolio performance review","Shiller CAPE ratio 2026","currency hedging Swiss investors","portfolio rebalancing 2026","CHF portfolio returns","global 60/40 portfolio","S\u0026P 500 valuation 2026","CAPE 42.7","S\u0026P 500 concentration","Nvidia S\u0026P 500 weight","emerging markets rotation","Europe equities valuation","Federal Reserve rate cuts 2026","gold portfolio allocation","Bitcoin portfolio diversification","Japan CHF hedged ETF","AI capex portfolio exposure","time-weighted return","asset allocation review"],"word_count":1984,"reading_time_minutes":10,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/midyear-cover.jpg","summary":"My 2026 midyear portfolio review tracks a 5.2% CHF gain against global 60/40 and the S\u0026P 500, the calls that failed, and three allocation changes."},{"id":"f35aaf0b87efe5635955485230a705af","slug":"dora-critical-cloud-providers-sovereignty","title":"How DORA Made Sovereignty a Bank Problem","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/dora-critical-cloud-providers-sovereignty/","description":"DORA’s 19 critical ICT providers put bank cloud sovereignty under direct EU oversight, with exit plans and concentration controls facing the CLOUD Act conflict.","date_published":"2026-05-24","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI","Investing"],"keywords":["DORA critical ICT third-party providers","DORA cloud exit strategy","DORA third-party risk management","EU data sovereignty CLOUD Act","DORA concentration risk","DORA CTPP list 2025","Digital Operational Resilience Act","DORA bank compliance","DORA cloud outsourcing","DORA Article 28 exit plan","DORA Article 29 concentration risk","DORA Article 30 contract requirements","ECB Cloud Outsourcing Guide 2025","EU Data Act Article 32","CLOUD Act EU compliance","sovereign cloud banking","DACH bank cloud regulation","cloud provider audit rights","AWS European Sovereign Cloud Brandenburg","EU digital sovereignty"],"word_count":2219,"reading_time_minutes":11,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/cover-dora-sovereignty.png","summary":"DORA’s 19 critical ICT providers put bank cloud sovereignty under direct EU oversight, with exit plans and concentration controls facing the CLOUD Act conflict."},{"id":"75e8d7bc16bd1846ce63814c3fa5c1f1","slug":"aschenbrenners-receipts","title":"Aschenbrenner's Receipts","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/aschenbrenners-receipts/","description":"Leopold Aschenbrenner made dated AGI, infrastructure, and political forecasts in Situational Awareness. I assess which calls held up by May 2026, two years on.","date_published":"2026-05-21","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI","Investing"],"keywords":["Leopold Aschenbrenner predictions","Situational Awareness AGI 2027","Situational Awareness essay summary","Leopold Aschenbrenner Manhattan Project","Situational Awareness LP portfolio","Situational Awareness prediction scorecard","AGI 2027 prediction accuracy","counting OOMs AI","test-time compute prediction","AI power constraint","trillion dollar cluster","AI nationalisation","AI lab security","Burkean accelerationist","modal story forecasting","OpenAI Superalignment dissolution","alignment faking large language models","DeepSeek R1 algorithmic frontier","Aschenbrenner Dwarkesh Patel interview","AI infrastructure investment thesis"],"word_count":6210,"reading_time_minutes":30,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-aschenbrenners-receipts.jpg","summary":"Leopold Aschenbrenner made dated AGI, infrastructure, and political forecasts in Situational Awareness. I assess which calls held up by May 2026, two years on."},{"id":"c0e2ab45a80f4bd014ba9375c9cd2dc4","slug":"reconciling-enterprise-ai-revenue","title":"Reconciling Enterprise AI Revenue","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/reconciling-enterprise-ai-revenue/","description":"Four enterprise AI revenue estimates span 40x. A $63.2 billion audit-grade floor provides a defensible basis for testing $690 billion of AI capex.","date_published":"2026-05-17","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI","Investing"],"keywords":["enterprise AI revenue 2025","AI capex revenue gap","hyperscaler AI capex 2026","Gartner AI spending 2025","Menlo enterprise AI 2025","AI revenue reconciliation","audit-grade AI revenue","enterprise AI market size","IDC AI spending guide","vendor AI revenue run rate","AI revenue double counting","AI annual recurring revenue","recognized AI revenue","AI revenue disclosure tiers","AI capex coverage ratio","AI infrastructure debt","AI capex sustainability","telecom capex comparison","Spread Index AI","vendor census enterprise AI"],"word_count":2963,"reading_time_minutes":14,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/cover-capex.png","summary":"Four enterprise AI revenue estimates span 40x. A $63.2 billion audit-grade floor provides a defensible basis for testing $690 billion of AI capex."},{"id":"c4b2a5c0e5dc7ce0bb23f3d223264c32","slug":"","title":"What Claude Thinks But Doesn't Say","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/what-claude-thinks-but-doesnt-say/","description":"Anthropic's natural language autoencoders translate Claude's activations into readable text. The method works. The press release skips three structural problems.","date_published":"2026-05-11","date_modified":"2026-05-11","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["Natural Language Autoencoders","Claude evaluation awareness","Anthropic interpretability","activation verbalizer","foundation model audit","Anthropic NLA paper","Claude interpretability","activation reconstructor","Claude Opus 4.6 audit","sparse autoencoders vs NLA","attribution graphs","mechanistic interpretability","model auditing reward sycophancy","Claude planning rabbit rhyme","warm-start NLA Opus 4.5","Goodhart law interpretability","Anthropic Mythos Preview audit","verbalizable activations LLM","AI safety evaluation awareness","Transformer Circuits NLA paper","GRPO interpretability","Anthropic May 2026 paper","AI model auditing cost","how do natural language autoencoders work","sparse autoencoders vs natural language autoencoders"],"word_count":2459,"reading_time_minutes":12,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/claude_understanding_image.jpg","summary":"Anthropic's natural language autoencoders translate Claude's activations into readable text. The method works. The press release skips three structural problems."},{"id":"725bf1abb4377745edfeb66c4a0b0b70","slug":"","title":"Two Anthropics","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/two-anthropics/","description":"Anthropic grew into a $380 billion frontier AI company around a safety mission. Scale may turn that mission from a moat into a constraint.","date_published":"2026-05-09","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI","Investing"],"keywords":["Anthropic safety mission","Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy","Anthropic valuation 2026","Anthropic race to the top","Anthropic safety vs commercial pressure","Two Anthropics","Anthropic Paradox","Anthropic 380 billion valuation","Anthropic safety thesis","Anthropic safety moat","AI safety lab business model","frontier AI lab valuation","AI governance","frontier AI regulation","public benefit corporation AI","Dario Amodei AI safety","Anthropic vs OpenAI safety","AI lab commercial pressure","Anthropic DoD First Amendment ruling","Anthropic chip export controls"],"word_count":2311,"reading_time_minutes":11,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-two-anthropics.jpg","summary":"Anthropic grew into a $380 billion frontier AI company around a safety mission. Scale may turn that mission from a moat into a constraint."},{"id":"1a83c481c1617107787a548aae10f64b","slug":"","title":"The Anatomy of a Decentralized Prediction Market: Notes from the Polymarket Order Book","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-anatomy-of-a-decentralized-prediction-market-notes-from-the-polymarket-order-book/","description":"I study Polymarket microstructure using 30.3 billion order-book events: spreads, depth, wash trading, and a trade-direction error that affects measurement.","date_published":"2026-05-02","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Project","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["Polymarket microstructure","Polymarket order book data","Polymarket WebSocket feed","prediction market liquidity","Polymarket wash trading","decentralized prediction market order book","Polymarket CLOB","on-chain trade direction","CTF Exchange OrderFilled","prediction market bid-ask spread","longshot spread premium","Lee-Ready trade classification","Kyle's lambda","order-book depth","Polygon prediction market","trade-direction inference","Polymarket dataset","prediction market research"],"word_count":2488,"reading_time_minutes":12,"doi":"10.48550/arXiv.2604.24366","image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-polymarket-microstructure.jpg","summary":"I study Polymarket microstructure using 30.3 billion order-book events: spreads, depth, wash trading, and a trade-direction error that affects measurement."},{"id":"9aa76202af06fee44c8926dd5e61c7e5","slug":"","title":"Karpathy's Software 3.0 Playbook","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/karpathys-software-3.0-playbook/","description":"Twelve lessons from Andrej Karpathy's Sequoia interview: Software 3.0, vibe coding versus agentic engineering, jagged intelligence, and the December 2024 inflection in agentic coding.","date_published":"2026-05-01","date_modified":"2026-05-01","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI","Tech"],"keywords":["Andrej Karpathy Software 3.0","Karpathy Sequoia interview","vibe coding vs agentic engineering","Software 3.0 paradigm","Karpathy never felt more behind","agentic coding workflow","December 2024 AI inflection point","LLM jagged intelligence","reinforcement learning verifiable rewards","context window as program","LLM as interpreter","agent-native infrastructure","Karpathy taste spec oversight","ghosts not animals AI","MenuGen Karpathy","10x engineer agentic era"],"word_count":1866,"reading_time_minutes":9,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-lessons-from-karpathy.jpg","summary":"Twelve lessons from Andrej Karpathy's Sequoia interview: Software 3.0, vibe coding versus agentic engineering, jagged intelligence, and the December 2024 inflection in agentic coding."},{"id":"b7524e3985d18a802967eb5c91afa454","slug":"","title":"F3ED Can't Call an Ace: Fixing a NeurIPS 2024 Tennis Model","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/f3ed-cant-call-an-ace-fixing-a-neurips-2024-tennis-model/","description":"F3ED, the NeurIPS 2024 tennis shot detector, mislabels 73% of single-shot serve unforced errors. A 23-line scoreboard OCR reconciler fixes them.","date_published":"2026-04-29","date_modified":"2026-04-29","type":"Project","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["tennis shot detection","tennis broadcast computer vision","tennis match analytics open source","fine-grained tennis event detection","automatic ace detection tennis","F3ED tennis model audit","tennis scoreboard OCR pipeline","score-grammar reconciler","TenniSet V006 benchmark","ATP Challenger video analysis","shot outcome classification","EasyOCR tennis scoreboard","YOLOv8x tennis player detection","CatBoost bounce detection filter"],"word_count":1829,"reading_time_minutes":9,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-tennis-vision3.jpg","summary":"F3ED, the NeurIPS 2024 tennis shot detector, mislabels 73% of single-shot serve unforced errors. A 23-line scoreboard OCR reconciler fixes them."},{"id":"0d4b4136a3dab40f3cee1d5198db2498","slug":"","title":"Inside PRAGMA: Revolut's Foundation Model for Banking","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/inside-pragma-revoluts-foundation-model-for-banking/","description":"Revolut's PRAGMA is a 1B-parameter encoder trained on 24B banking events. Reading the paper, comparing with Nubank's nuFormer, planning a rebuild.","date_published":"2026-04-26","date_modified":"2026-04-26","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["PRAGMA","Revolut foundation model","banking foundation model","nuFormer Nubank","transformer banking transactions","self-supervised learning transactions"],"word_count":1198,"reading_time_minutes":6,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-pragma-revolut.jpg","summary":"Revolut's PRAGMA is a 1B-parameter encoder trained on 24B banking events. Reading the paper, comparing with Nubank's nuFormer, planning a rebuild."},{"id":"46aeda2f9b3be552db93f8a5feb5a51a","slug":"","title":"The Moral Philosophy of Investing in Ignorance","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-moral-philosophy-of-investing-in-ignorance/","description":"Constraint arbitrage, the sidecar problem, and who bears the distributional cost of investing under ignorance. The final installment of Edge of Knowledge.","date_published":"2026-04-22","date_modified":"2026-04-26","type":"Analysis","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["ethics of investing under ignorance","constraint arbitrage fairness","Zeckhauser blame aversion investing","institutional investor career risk","Monday morning quarterback MMQ risk","sidecar investing ethics Gazprom","Munger Zeckhauser bridge quote","UU investing distributional consequences","Ricardo Waterloo investment unknown","fiduciary duty ambiguity penalty","market efficiency ignorance box","pension fund UU constraints","Buffett California earthquake authority ethics","complementary skills vs power investing"],"word_count":1454,"reading_time_minutes":7,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-moral-philosophy-investing-ignorance.jpg","summary":"Constraint arbitrage, the sidecar problem, and who bears the distributional cost of investing under ignorance. The final installment of Edge of Knowledge."},{"id":"a3f4c8b641a3232702af9bd414c9e583","slug":"","title":"Bet Sizing at the Frontier","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/bet-sizing-at-the-frontier/","description":"The Kelly Criterion assumes you know your probability of winning. In a UU world, you don't, and heuristics like Zeckhauser's Maxim B replace false precision.","date_published":"2026-04-17","date_modified":"2026-04-26","type":"Analysis","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["Kelly Criterion limitations","position sizing under uncertainty","Kelly Samuelson debate","Zeckhauser Maxim B","unknown unknowable investing","fractional Kelly half Kelly"],"word_count":1766,"reading_time_minutes":9,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-bet-sizing-frontier.jpg","summary":"The Kelly Criterion assumes you know your probability of winning. In a UU world, you don't, and heuristics like Zeckhauser's Maxim B replace false precision."},{"id":"a98cc90b93dab270ed8cd2af36483a25","slug":"","title":"Do Not Disturb My Circles","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/do-not-disturb-my-circles/","description":"AlphaFold cost under $1M to train. OpenAI spends $2.3B on inference. The chatbot era consumed the talent and compute that could have cured diseases.","date_published":"2026-04-13","date_modified":"2026-04-15","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["AI for science vs chatbots","Demis Hassabis AlphaFold Gemini","AlphaFold training cost","AI compute scientific research funding","Bell Labs monopoly research decline","AI chatbot misallocation","AI opportunity cost","AI brain drain academia","scientific AI funding gap","AI capital allocation 2026","DeepMind scientific AI","AI infrastructure spending science","Hassabis cure cancer quote","chatbot era capital misallocation","AI for science underfunded","fundamental research AI funding","AI resource allocation science commercial"],"word_count":2516,"reading_time_minutes":12,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-do-not-disturb-my-circles.jpg","summary":"AlphaFold cost under $1M to train. OpenAI spends $2.3B on inference. The chatbot era consumed the talent and compute that could have cured diseases."},{"id":"1525e4cb142a4b89ebe2c55eafd2cf51","slug":"","title":"The Geometry of Who Knows What","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-geometry-of-who-knows-what/","description":"When neither side can define the states of the world, adverse selection fears are misplaced. Zeckhauser's information matrices and constraint arbitrage.","date_published":"2026-04-13","date_modified":"2026-04-26","type":"Analysis","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["information asymmetry investing","adverse selection financial markets","sidecar investing Zeckhauser","Buffett California Earthquake Authority reinsurance","winner's curse investing","Aumann agreeing to disagree","constraint arbitrage institutional investors","limits to arbitrage institutional constraints","Monday morning quarterback risk","Akerlof lemons problem investing","complementary skills investing edge","Summers sidecar objection","Robb uncommunicable knowledge","fiduciary duty ambiguity avoidance"],"word_count":1683,"reading_time_minutes":8,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-geometry-who-knows-what.jpg","summary":"When neither side can define the states of the world, adverse selection fears are misplaced. Zeckhauser's information matrices and constraint arbitrage."},{"id":"a7a265c0adc963babb1491f16e0e9f00","slug":"","title":"Why Lilly's Weight Loss Pill Isn't a Peptide","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/why-lillys-weight-loss-pill-isnt-a-peptide/","description":"Oral semaglutide destroys 99% of its active ingredient per dose. Lilly's Foundayo skips the problem entirely. Inside the $70B oral GLP-1 pill race.","date_published":"2026-04-09","date_modified":"2026-04-09","type":"Analysis","categories":["Medicine"],"keywords":["Foundayo vs oral Wegovy","orforglipron vs oral semaglutide","oral GLP-1 weight loss pill 2026","oral semaglutide bioavailability SNAC","GLP-1 market size obesity 2030","Foundayo orforglipron FDA approval 2026","Foundayo weight loss pill price","Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly GLP-1 2026","oral weight loss pill GLP-1","small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist","oral semaglutide Wegovy pill 25mg","GLP-1 manufacturing cost COGS","semaglutide patent expiry 2031 biosimilar","oral GLP-1 pipeline aleniglipron VK2735 amycretin","GLP-1 adherence persistence discontinuation","anti-obesity medication market expansion","Jevons Paradox statin analogy GLP-1"],"word_count":1711,"reading_time_minutes":9,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-oral-peptides1.jpg","summary":"Oral semaglutide destroys 99% of its active ingredient per dose. Lilly's Foundayo skips the problem entirely. Inside the $70B oral GLP-1 pill race."},{"id":"8217d284a01f0b3e1aa68e0460b5b28f","slug":"","title":"Ambiguity by Design","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/ambiguity-by-design/","description":"Ellsberg proved people flee unknown odds. Zeckhauser showed their flight creates mispricing. Part 2 on ambiguity aversion, comparative ignorance, and investing.","date_published":"2026-04-08","date_modified":"2026-04-26","type":"Analysis","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["ambiguity aversion investing","Ellsberg paradox finance","Zeckhauser unknown unknowable","comparative ignorance Fox Tversky","Knightian uncertainty mispricing","ambiguity aversion vs risk aversion","Gilboa Schmeidler maxmin expected utility","Bewley inertia uncertainty","betrayal aversion Bohnet Zeckhauser","SaaSpocalypse IGV sell-off ambiguity","ambiguity premium equity mispricing","Ellsberg paradox explained","behavioral finance ambiguity aversion","career risk ambiguity aversion","institutional constraints uncertainty"],"word_count":1516,"reading_time_minutes":8,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-ambiguity-by-design.jpg","summary":"Ellsberg proved people flee unknown odds. Zeckhauser showed their flight creates mispricing. Part 2 on ambiguity aversion, comparative ignorance, and investing."},{"id":"badf7bb656fcf48311dbfaa20da01c2e","slug":"","title":"Three Kinds of Not-Knowing","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/three-kinds-of-not-knowing/","description":"Knightian uncertainty splits not-knowing into risk, uncertainty, and ignorance. A century after Knight and Keynes, most of investing still ignores the split.","date_published":"2026-04-04","date_modified":"2026-04-26","type":"Analysis","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["Knightian uncertainty investing","risk vs uncertainty investing","risk uncertainty ignorance framework","Zeckhauser unknown unknowable","investing under uncertainty","unknown unknowns investing","radical uncertainty finance","Frank Knight risk uncertainty profit","Keynes weight of evidence","Knightian uncertainty explained","unknown unknowable UU investing","decision making under uncertainty finance","Buffett California earthquake reinsurance","Kay King radical uncertainty","Ricardo Waterloo bonds","enterprise software AI uncertainty 2026","types of uncertainty investing"],"word_count":1648,"reading_time_minutes":8,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-edge-of-knowledge.jpg","summary":"Knightian uncertainty splits not-knowing into risk, uncertainty, and ignorance. A century after Knight and Keynes, most of investing still ignores the split."},{"id":"61740c0bd52c337e0b7517be84c391d3","slug":"","title":"On-Device AI Models Will Be The New Reason to Upgrade Your Phone","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/on-device-ai-models-will-be-the-new-reason-to-upgrade-your-phone/","description":"Smartphones haven't had a compelling upgrade story in years. On-device AI models, distilled from frontier systems like Gemini, are about to change that. Parameters are the new megapixels.","date_published":"2026-03-25","date_modified":"2026-03-26","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI","Tech"],"keywords":["on-device AI smartphone","Apple Gemini distillation","smartphone upgrade cycle AI 2026","Apple Foundation Model 3 billion parameters","NPU TOPS smartphone 2026","iPhone on-device AI model parameters","parameter count smartphone marketing","megapixel myth AI equivalent","Gemini Nano on-device models","Apple Intelligence upgrade cycle","knowledge distillation AI iPhone","on-device LLM smartphone 2026","smartphone AI hardware differentiation","smartphone spec war AI parameters"],"word_count":978,"reading_time_minutes":5,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-on-device-models.jpg","summary":"Smartphones haven't had a compelling upgrade story in years. On-device AI models, distilled from frontier systems like Gemini, are about to change that. Parameters are the new megapixels."},{"id":"d415f18ce15d9164d42ffb49377dbfab","slug":"","title":"AI Can Now Design Drugs in Seconds; We Still Can't Tell You If They Work.","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-can-now-design-drugs-in-seconds-we-still-cant-tell-you-if-they-work./","description":"IsoDDE doubles AlphaFold 3 on hard benchmarks and beats physics-based gold standards. But no AI drug has FDA approval. What $4B in pharma deals actually mean.","date_published":"2026-03-18","date_modified":"2026-03-24","type":"Article","categories":["Medicine","AI"],"keywords":["Isomorphic Labs IsoDDE","IsoDDE vs AlphaFold 3","AI drug discovery clinical trials success rate","AI designed drug FDA approval","Isomorphic Labs Eli Lilly Novartis partnership","AI drug discovery Phase II wall","binding affinity prediction FEP+","computational drug design","in silico drug discovery","AI drug Phase 2 success rate","generative AI drug discovery","Insilico Medicine rentosertib","Recursion Exscientia merger","Alphabet Other Bets Isomorphic Labs","undruggable targets AI","Demis Hassabis drug design","AI pharma deal structure biobucks","Chai Discovery Boltz AI biotech","IsoDDE benchmark performance","Phase II efficacy AI drugs"],"word_count":1071,"reading_time_minutes":6,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-isomorphic-labs-isodde1.jpg","summary":"IsoDDE doubles AlphaFold 3 on hard benchmarks and beats physics-based gold standards. But no AI drug has FDA approval. What $4B in pharma deals actually mean."},{"id":"a5a1a2705cd9b02ed93932955aa2c468","slug":"","title":"The Last Architecture Designed by Hand","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-last-architecture-designed-by-hand/","description":"The transformer's limits are now mathematical proofs, not empirical hunches. Hybrids are in production. AI systems are searching for new architectures.","date_published":"2026-03-16","date_modified":"2026-03-16","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI","Tech"],"keywords":["what comes after transformers","transformer architecture limits","AI architecture 2026","Mamba vs transformer","hybrid AI architecture","post-transformer architecture","AlphaEvolve AI research","transformer quadratic scaling","diffusion language models","mixture of experts MoE","AI recursive self-improvement","LLM hallucination mathematical proof","DeepSeek V3 training cost","inference compute scaling","Jamba hybrid architecture","test-time compute scaling","state space models vs transformers","transformer replacement 2026"],"word_count":1201,"reading_time_minutes":6,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-last-architecture-designed-by-hand.jpg","summary":"The transformer's limits are now mathematical proofs, not empirical hunches. Hybrids are in production. AI systems are searching for new architectures."},{"id":"f9d308102f58541605431b96acfb9951","slug":"","title":"MCP vs A2A in 2026: How the AI Protocol War Ends","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/mcp-vs-a2a-in-2026-how-the-ai-protocol-war-ends/","description":"MCP leads with 97M monthly SDK downloads and 10,000+ servers. A2A fills a different layer. Analysis of the agentic AI standards war with historical parallels.","date_published":"2026-03-15","date_modified":"2026-03-16","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI","Tech"],"keywords":["MCP vs A2A","MCP vs A2A 2026","model context protocol","agent to agent protocol","agentic AI protocol war","AI agent protocol","MCP A2A comparison","MCP protocol adoption","A2A protocol Google","Agentic AI Foundation","MCP security vulnerabilities","agentic AI market size","AI agent interoperability","enterprise AI architecture","MCP server ecosystem","multi-agent orchestration","AI standards war","model context protocol vs agent to agent protocol"],"word_count":1479,"reading_time_minutes":7,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-agentic-ai-standards-war1.jpg","summary":"MCP leads with 97M monthly SDK downloads and 10,000+ servers. A2A fills a different layer. Analysis of the agentic AI standards war with historical parallels."},{"id":"be0ad076a77cc8be035b12a448b82189","slug":"","title":"AI Models Are the New Rebar","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-models-are-the-new-rebar/","description":"Qwen 3.5-35B runs on a gaming PC and matches Claude Sonnet 4.5. When the commodity version is 95% as good and 97% cheaper, you have a pricing problem.","date_published":"2026-03-11","date_modified":"2026-03-11","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI","Investing"],"keywords":["AI model commoditization","AI commoditization","open-source AI models","open source AI vs proprietary","AI inference cost decline","OpenAI valuation","AI pricing war 2026","AI margin compression","Qwen 3.5","LLM switching costs","AI model pricing","disruptive innovation AI","model layer commodity","who wins AI value chain","OpenAI profitability","open source AI performance gap","Christensen AI disruption","Anthropic valuation"],"word_count":1462,"reading_time_minutes":7,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-ai-margin-collapse1.jpg","summary":"Qwen 3.5-35B runs on a gaming PC and matches Claude Sonnet 4.5. When the commodity version is 95% as good and 97% cheaper, you have a pricing problem."},{"id":"f0c2b6ec830dbcae5c6ad688f2e2e18e","slug":"","title":"AI Capex Arms Race: Who Blinks First?","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-capex-arms-race-who-blinks-first/","description":"Alphabet's free cash flow is on track to fall 90% in 2026. Amazon's is at $11B. $690B in AI capex is cannibalizing the cash that justified these valuations.","date_published":"2026-03-08","date_modified":"2026-03-08","type":"Analysis","categories":["Investing","AI"],"keywords":["AI capex 2026","hyperscaler capex 2026","AI infrastructure bubble","AI spending free cash flow","GPU depreciation stranded assets","AI capex vs revenue gap","AI data center spending 2026","telecom bubble AI comparison","Sequoia 600 billion revenue gap","inference cost decline","Dario Amodei AI spending risk","AI infrastructure overbuilt","GPU useful life depreciation risk","AI capex bubble","Big Tech AI free cash flow","hyperscaler AI investment sustainability","Jevons paradox AI compute"],"word_count":1522,"reading_time_minutes":8,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-ai-capex-arms-race1.jpg","summary":"Alphabet's free cash flow is on track to fall 90% in 2026. Amazon's is at $11B. $690B in AI capex is cannibalizing the cash that justified these valuations."},{"id":"805a93b7276b5fd47348053ba757b36b","slug":"","title":"93% of Developers Use AI Coding Tools. Productivity Hasn't Moved.","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/93-of-developers-use-ai-coding-tools.-productivity-hasnt-moved./","description":"An analysis of METR’s developer trials, DORA research and the code-review bottleneck: why faster code generation can fail to improve delivery.","date_published":"2026-03-04","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Analysis","categories":["Tech"],"keywords":["AI coding productivity","AI developer productivity paradox","does AI coding improve productivity","METR AI developer study 2026","GitHub Copilot productivity ROI","AI coding tools productivity","developer productivity AI","AI code review bottleneck","AI generated code quality","DORA metrics AI adoption","Amdahl's law software development","AI pair programming ROI","software engineering productivity","AI coding tools enterprise ROI 2026","code generation productivity gap"],"word_count":1887,"reading_time_minutes":9,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-ai-coding-productivity1.jpg","summary":"An analysis of METR’s developer trials, DORA research and the code-review bottleneck: why faster code generation can fail to improve delivery."},{"id":"fa3fd171e2a76526d6b6a5bf0e5e67c7","slug":"peter-thiels-physics-department","title":"The Physics Department That Slowed Down","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/peter-thiels-physics-department/","description":"Peter Thiel says physics stalled in 1972. Then GPT-5.2 proved a new result in theoretical physics. The 75:1 AI compute gap between commerce and science.","date_published":"2026-03-02","date_modified":"2026-03-02","type":"Article","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["AI scientific discovery","AI for science","GPT-5.2 gluon discovery","Peter Thiel stagnation thesis","AI compute gap science","Great Stagnation AI","AI breakthrough physics 2026","total factor productivity decline","AlphaFold Nobel Prize 2024","federal AI R\u0026D spending","AI fusion energy plasma control","dual-use AI technology","DeepMind GNoME materials discovery","AI drug discovery clinical trials","scattering amplitudes theoretical physics","research productivity decline","computational irreducibility physics","bits vs atoms innovation","AI accelerated physics","scientific progress stagnation"],"word_count":1654,"reading_time_minutes":8,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-physics-department1.jpg","summary":"Peter Thiel says physics stalled in 1972. Then GPT-5.2 proved a new result in theoretical physics. The 75:1 AI compute gap between commerce and science."},{"id":"29b6ac90e5c3f097fddb9aaf1dfe55cf","slug":"","title":"Every Bulge Bracket Bank Agrees on AI","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/every-bulge-bracket-bank-agrees-on-ai/","description":"I read 12 AI research reports from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, UBS, and 6 other banks. Here's the consensus they're pushing, and what they're not saying.","date_published":"2026-03-01","date_modified":"2026-03-01","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI","Investing"],"keywords":["AI bubble 2026","bank AI research reports","AI capex productivity gap","second-order AI beneficiaries","Wall Street AI consensus","hyperscaler AI spending 2026","AI investment outlook 2026","sell-side AI research consensus","enterprise AI adoption rate","AI project failure rate","Goldman Sachs AI report","Morgan Stanley AI analysis","AI bubble vs dot-com","AI capex ROI","Jevons paradox AI energy","AI data centre power demand","AI general-purpose technology","nuclear energy data centres","AI infrastructure investment thesis","AI market concentration risk","hyperscaler capex ROI 2026","AI stock market outlook 2026","AI productivity paradox"],"word_count":1947,"reading_time_minutes":10,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-banks-ai-research1.jpg","summary":"I read 12 AI research reports from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, UBS, and 6 other banks. Here's the consensus they're pushing, and what they're not saying."},{"id":"1c2da81f392eae629397d680977002b7","slug":"","title":"When AI Labs Become Defense Contractors","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/when-ai-labs-become-defense-contractors/","description":"The Anthropic-Pentagon standoff recalls the 1993 Last Supper that consolidated 51 defense primes into 5, now at Silicon Valley speed.","date_published":"2026-03-01","date_modified":"2026-03-15","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI","Economics"],"keywords":["AI defense contractors","Anthropic Pentagon ban","OpenAI Pentagon deal","Pentagon AI budget 2026","defense industry consolidation AI","AI military industrial complex","Palantir government revenue","IDIQ defense contracts","AI military contracts","security clearances AI companies","defense tech AI","DoD AI budget","AI weapons policy","defense revenue dependency","Last Supper defense industry","military AI governance","Pentagon AI strategy","government AI contracts","defense tech valuation","Silicon Valley defense contractors"],"word_count":1553,"reading_time_minutes":8,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-ai-labs-defense-contractors1.jpg","summary":"The Anthropic-Pentagon standoff recalls the 1993 Last Supper that consolidated 51 defense primes into 5, now at Silicon Valley speed."},{"id":"5710e5506990622be274f3b6b540282e","slug":"","title":"People Live in Levels, Not Rates","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/people-live-in-levels-not-rates/","description":"Prices rose 25% since 2020 and won't come back. The levels-vs-rates problem explains the vibecession, the Stewart-Thaler debate, and why nobody trusts economists.","date_published":"2026-02-28","date_modified":"2026-02-28","type":"Commentary","categories":["Macro"],"keywords":["why economy feels bad","vibecession 2026","prices still high inflation down","Jon Stewart Richard Thaler debate 2026","K-shaped economy wages 2026","cumulative inflation since 2020","levels vs rates problem inflation","vibepression 2026","consumer sentiment disconnect","grocery prices since pandemic","housing affordability crisis 2026","economic perception gap","real wage growth by income level","nudge theory effectiveness meta-analysis","essentials squeeze affordability","economics communication failure","behavioral economics trust crisis","why economy feels bad when data is good"],"word_count":1347,"reading_time_minutes":7,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-stewart-thaler-debate.jpg","summary":"Prices rose 25% since 2020 and won't come back. The levels-vs-rates problem explains the vibecession, the Stewart-Thaler debate, and why nobody trusts economists."},{"id":"8a4be6a159c13879f140e10f078d3d93","slug":"","title":"Novo Was Europe's Most Valuable Company","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/novo-was-europes-most-valuable-company/","description":"Novo Nordisk lost 75% since June 2024. CagriSema failed vs Zepbound, US pricing is resetting lower, and Lilly leads on every axis. Full breakdown with numbers.","date_published":"2026-02-23","date_modified":"2026-02-23","type":"Analysis","categories":["Medicine"],"keywords":["Novo Nordisk stock crash 2026","NVO stock analysis February 2026","CagriSema REDEFINE 4 trial results","CagriSema vs Zepbound head to head","Novo Nordisk 2026 guidance revenue decline","Eli Lilly vs Novo Nordisk obesity drugs","semaglutide patent expiry international","Wegovy pill launch 2026","orforglipron FDA approval 2026","retatrutide Phase 3 weight loss","GLP-1 market pricing pressure MFN","Novo Nordisk valuation forward PE","obesity drug market 2030 forecast","tirzepatide revenue 2025","Novo Nordisk CEO Doustdar restructuring"],"word_count":1652,"reading_time_minutes":8,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-whats-wrong-at-novo.jpg","summary":"Novo Nordisk lost 75% since June 2024. CagriSema failed vs Zepbound, US pricing is resetting lower, and Lilly leads on every axis. Full breakdown with numbers."},{"id":"bc6f6521662825f96f010da1851ad5c5","slug":"","title":"The Absolute Insider Mess of Prediction Markets","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-absolute-insider-mess-of-prediction-markets/","description":"A Google insider made $1.15M on Polymarket in 24 hours. Israeli soldiers bet classified strike timing. Why prediction markets need insider trading regulation.","date_published":"2026-02-22","date_modified":"2026-02-22","type":"Analysis","categories":["Investing"],"keywords":["Polymarket insider trading","prediction market regulation","prediction market insider trading legal","Kalshi vs Polymarket","adverse selection prediction markets"],"word_count":2334,"reading_time_minutes":12,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-prediction-market-insider-trading.jpg","summary":"A Google insider made $1.15M on Polymarket in 24 hours. Israeli soldiers bet classified strike timing. Why prediction markets need insider trading regulation."},{"id":"5c03ba5dd1d6fe9e5dffe86b80ce1269","slug":"","title":"Economics of a Super Bowl Ad","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/economics-of-a-super-bowl-ad/","description":"A 30-second Super Bowl spot costs $8M. The real price is $16–23M. The ROI evidence is mixed. A deep look at the pricing, the prisoner's dilemma, and the NFL.","date_published":"2026-02-20","date_modified":"2026-02-20","type":"Analysis","categories":["Economics"],"keywords":["Super Bowl ad cost 2026","Super Bowl advertising ROI","do Super Bowl ads work","Super Bowl commercial cost breakdown","NFL Super Bowl advertising economics","Super Bowl prisoner dilemma game theory","Hartmann Klapper Stanford Super Bowl study","Super Bowl ad attribution problem","Super Bowl CPM analysis","Anheuser-Busch Super Bowl exclusivity","Super Bowl viewership 2026","Super Bowl ad production cost","Super Bowl ad effectiveness research","NFL advertising monopoly pricing","monoculture advertising Super Bowl","Super Bowl ad brand recall","Super Bowl streaming viewership Tubi","EDO Super Bowl engagement metric","Super Bowl 30-second spot price history","marketing attribution advertising measurement","game theory pricing economics","monopoly pricing power","advertising ROI measurement","prisoner's dilemma business strategy"],"word_count":2223,"reading_time_minutes":11,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-super-bowl-economics1.jpg","summary":"A 30-second Super Bowl spot costs $8M. The real price is $16–23M. The ROI evidence is mixed. A deep look at the pricing, the prisoner's dilemma, and the NFL."},{"id":"4a04b79c47a8bcca465126f31c05994e","slug":"","title":"The Impossible Backhand","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-impossible-backhand/","description":"AI converges to the mean by design. Ninth-power scaling costs and a 53-point gap on Humanity's Last Exam show domain expertise is appreciating, not declining.","date_published":"2026-02-17","date_modified":"2026-03-15","type":"Article","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["AI quality ceiling domain expertise","human AI collaboration centaur model","Humanity's Last Exam AI benchmark 2026","AI hallucination rates legal medical","AI deskilling risk workforce","AI convergence to mean RLHF typicality","AI scaling laws diminishing returns","centaur model AI augmentation vs replacement","jagged technological frontier Harvard BCG","model collapse Shumailov Nature 2024","ninth power compute scaling AI","AI overconfidence calibration error","Ben Affleck AI Joe Rogan quality","domain expert AI competitive advantage","AI skill erosion professional knowledge","Harvard BCG GPT-4 consultant study","AI video generation quality limits","Sara Hooker scaling laws compute cost","AI blind delegation risk centaur","enterprise AI strategy domain knowledge","AI output quality limits structural","human AI partnership knowledge workers","AI capability frontier jagged","knowledge worker productivity AI","professional AI risk hallucination","does AI replace or augment experts","AI quality plateau ninth power curve","why AI converges to average output"],"word_count":2007,"reading_time_minutes":10,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-ai-scaling-walls1.jpg","summary":"AI converges to the mean by design. Ninth-power scaling costs and a 53-point gap on Humanity's Last Exam show domain expertise is appreciating, not declining."},{"id":"752431af458a56a0719afe94b44056e0","slug":"","title":"Europe's $24 Trillion Payment Breakup Is Really a Bet on Infrastructure Arbitrage","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/europes-24-trillion-payment-breakup-is-really-a-bet-on-infrastructure-arbitrage/","description":"The Wero payment system targets a 1.0–1.2 percentage-point fee gap through SEPA Instant. See how EuroPA could challenge Visa and Mastercard across Europe.","date_published":"2026-02-16","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Article","categories":["Macro"],"keywords":["Wero payment system","European Payments Initiative","European payment sovereignty","account-to-account payments Europe","Wero vs Visa Mastercard","SEPA Instant Credit Transfer","EuroPA payment alliance","European payment infrastructure","Wero merchant fees","Visa Mastercard scheme fees","interchange fee regulation EU","pan-European payments","instant bank payments","EPI digital wallet","Wero EuroPA","Bizum Bancomat interoperability","digital euro vs Wero","open banking payments","UPI Pix comparison","merchant payment costs Europe"],"word_count":2681,"reading_time_minutes":13,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-european-payments-arbitrage3.jpg","summary":"The Wero payment system targets a 1.0–1.2 percentage-point fee gap through SEPA Instant. See how EuroPA could challenge Visa and Mastercard across Europe."},{"id":"713b996585d00e0dffb3e26d6607554d","slug":"your-manager-is-not-the-problem","title":"Your Manager Is Not the Problem","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/your-manager-is-not-the-problem/","description":"71% of executives have witnessed managers sabotaging talented employees. Harvard research shows status threat, not money, is the primary driver, and subjective evaluation discretion nearly doubles sabotage rates. The problem is incentive design, not character.","date_published":"2026-02-15","date_modified":"2026-02-15","type":"Article","categories":[],"keywords":["managerial sabotage research","top-down sabotage Harvard study","status threat workplace","relative performance evaluation sabotage","talent hoarding managers","organizational incentive design","Zaman Lakhani sabotage study","abusive supervision high performers","manager undermining talented employees","psychological safety workplace"],"word_count":712,"reading_time_minutes":4,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-manager-sabotage3.jpg","summary":"71% of executives have witnessed managers sabotaging talented employees. Harvard research shows status threat, not money, is the primary driver, and subjective evaluation discretion nearly doubles sabotage rates. The problem is incentive design, not character."},{"id":"89eea0c6c52cebc39a1b389237c1d5d2","slug":"","title":"Long Volatility Premium","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/long-volatility-premium/","description":"Can tail hedging improve compound returns? Review 40 years of beta-adjusted long-volatility evidence, plus AQR, Goldman, Universa, puts, trends, and costs.","date_published":"2026-02-14","date_modified":"2026-08-16","type":"Article","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["long volatility premium","tail risk hedging","beta-adjusted tail hedging","volatility risk premium","put options vs trend following","long volatility strategy","tail hedge portfolio","S\u0026P 500 put options","portfolio convexity","option delta gamma vega","variance tax compounding","rebalancing premium","portable alpha","crisis alpha","Universa Investments","risk budget reallocation","negative carry","VIX futures contango","out-of-the-money puts","managed futures trend following"],"word_count":2317,"reading_time_minutes":11,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-long-volatility-premium3.jpg","summary":"Can tail hedging improve compound returns? Review 40 years of beta-adjusted long-volatility evidence, plus AQR, Goldman, Universa, puts, trends, and costs."},{"id":"6fd6c5b4b790884034a194c0d41f9e3e","slug":"","title":"The SaaSpocalypse Paradox","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-saaspocalypse-paradox/","description":"AI capex failure and AI replacing all software are mutually exclusive. Why the 2026 SaaSpocalypse is a $2 trillion pricing error, not an extinction event.","date_published":"2026-02-13","date_modified":"2026-03-15","type":"Article","categories":["AI","Investing"],"keywords":["SaaSpocalypse 2026","software sell-off 2026","IGV ETF crash 2026","AI disruption enterprise software","software vs semiconductor valuation 2026","SaaS crash 2026","software bear market 2026","BofA AI paradox","hyperscaler capex sustainability 2026","SaaS per-seat pricing AI agents","software valuation inversion semiconductors","Anthropic Claude Cowork Plugins sell-off","systems of record vs systems of engagement","software bifurcation AI risk","value-based pricing AI software","AI capex ROI 2026","SaaS pricing model transition","enterprise AI adoption 2026","Goldman Sachs AI agent TAM 2030","a16z white collar services AI expansion"],"word_count":1567,"reading_time_minutes":8,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-saaspocalypse-paradox3.jpg","summary":"AI capex failure and AI replacing all software are mutually exclusive. Why the 2026 SaaSpocalypse is a $2 trillion pricing error, not an extinction event."},{"id":"6f05d96fb5e21ca3e33a59c291d10afc","slug":"","title":"Don't Go Monolithic; The Agent Stack Is Stratifying","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/dont-go-monolithic-the-agent-stack-is-stratifying/","description":"The enterprise AI agent stack is stratifying into six layers with different winners at each. Models commoditize; context — your organizational world model — compounds. A framework for agentic AI architecture decisions.","date_published":"2026-02-10","date_modified":"2026-02-10","type":"Article","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["enterprise AI agent stack","agentic AI architecture enterprise","AI model commoditization","organizational world model","organizational context AI defensibility","multi-model AI strategy","enterprise AI context layer","agent orchestration","AI governance enterprise","context graph enterprise AI","multi-agent systems enterprise","AI agent stack defensibility"],"word_count":1341,"reading_time_minutes":7,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-enterprise-agent-stack1.jpg","summary":"The enterprise AI agent stack is stratifying into six layers with different winners at each. Models commoditize; context — your organizational world model — compounds. A framework for agentic AI architecture decisions."},{"id":"13160db50c50139ef513517eb3c623aa","slug":"","title":"Where Mobile Money Goes Now","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/where-mobile-money-goes-now/","description":"Apps overtook games in mobile IAP revenue for the first time in 2025, driven by $3.5B in GenAI growth. Analysis of Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026 report.","date_published":"2026-02-07","date_modified":"2026-03-15","type":"Analysis","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["state of mobile 2026","mobile app revenue vs games 2025","GenAI app revenue 2025","ChatGPT app revenue","AI app demographics","Sensor Tower state of mobile","mobile gaming revenue decline","app economy trends 2025","GenAI consumer spending","AI app adoption","YouTube most popular app all ages","mobile in-app purchase revenue","AI advertising demographics","Waymo ride volume 2025","mobile app subscription revenue","autonomous ride-hailing growth","AI referral traffic retail","cross-generational app usage","mobile monetization trends","consumer spending mobile apps"],"word_count":545,"reading_time_minutes":3,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-state-of-mobile.jpg","summary":"Apps overtook games in mobile IAP revenue for the first time in 2025, driven by $3.5B in GenAI growth. Analysis of Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026 report."},{"id":"fafece93a9800fb4e3034177dbde404a","slug":"","title":"Variance Tax","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/variance-tax/","description":"Variance drain is the hidden cost of volatility: why a portfolio averaging +10% can lose money. The ½σ² formula explains the gap between paper and real returns.","date_published":"2026-02-06","date_modified":"2026-05-04","type":"Essay","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["variance drain","volatility drag","geometric vs arithmetic returns","leveraged ETF decay","Kelly criterion"],"word_count":693,"reading_time_minutes":4,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-variance-tax.jpg","summary":"Variance drain is the hidden cost of volatility: why a portfolio averaging +10% can lose money. The ½σ² formula explains the gap between paper and real returns."},{"id":"5850e9f0b28d0c289f41444c6be4603f","slug":"","title":"Claude Opus 4.6: Anthropic's New Flagship AI Model for Agentic Coding","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/claude-opus-4.6-anthropics-new-flagship-ai-model-for-agentic-coding/","description":"Claude Opus 4.6 brings a 1M token context window, 68.8% ARC-AGI-2, and Agent Teams to Claude Code. Full benchmark comparison vs GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro with pricing analysis.","date_published":"2026-02-05","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["Claude Opus 4.6","Anthropic Claude","LLM benchmarks comparison","agentic AI coding","1M context window LLM","Claude Code Agent Teams","GPT-5.2 vs Claude Opus","frontier AI model 2026","Terminal Bench 2.0","enterprise AI deployment"],"word_count":1041,"reading_time_minutes":5,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-opus46.jpg","summary":"Claude Opus 4.6 brings a 1M token context window, 68.8% ARC-AGI-2, and Agent Teams to Claude Code. Full benchmark comparison vs GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro with pricing analysis."},{"id":"c39218bc5914fffe1190c57aa9f7a68b","slug":"","title":"Buying the Haystack Might Not Work This Year","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/buying-the-haystack-might-not-work-this-year/","description":"a16z sees AI fundamentals thriving with 80% GPU utilization. AQR sees the CAPE at the 96th percentile. Both have data. Both may be right.","date_published":"2026-01-31","date_modified":"2026-05-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI","Investing"],"keywords":["AI bubble 2026","CAPE ratio stock market","AI valuation 2026","a16z state of markets","expected stock returns 2026"],"word_count":670,"reading_time_minutes":4,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-two-ways-ai.jpg","summary":"a16z sees AI fundamentals thriving with 80% GPU utilization. AQR sees the CAPE at the 96th percentile. Both have data. Both may be right."},{"id":"8cbdc313385abef0b701ee910766a1a5","slug":"","title":"Bandits and Agents: Netflix and Spotify Recommender Stacks in 2026","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/bandits-and-agents-netflix-and-spotify-recommender-stacks-in-2026/","description":"How hybrid recommender systems balance multi-armed bandits against LLM inference cost economics in 2026. An analysis of Netflix recommendation algorithm architecture and Spotify's AI DJ recommender system.","date_published":"2026-01-30","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Article","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["hybrid recommender systems 2026","multi-armed bandits recommender systems","LLM inference cost economics","Netflix recommendation algorithm architecture","Spotify AI DJ recommender system","recommender systems 2026","inference economics","contextual bandits","exploration exploitation tradeoff","Thompson Sampling","candidate generation ranking","personalization at scale"],"word_count":955,"reading_time_minutes":5,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-recommender-architecture.jpg","summary":"How hybrid recommender systems balance multi-armed bandits against LLM inference cost economics in 2026. An analysis of Netflix recommendation algorithm architecture and Spotify's AI DJ recommender system."},{"id":"494523162122511c05c0dbe8feafbbe5","slug":"","title":"Is Private Equity Just Beta With a Lockup?","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/is-private-equity-just-beta-with-a-lockup/","description":"AQR's 2026 data shows private equity returning 4.2% versus 3.9% for public equities. The 30bp illiquidity premium barely justifies years of lockup.","date_published":"2026-01-29","date_modified":"2026-05-14","type":"Commentary","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["illiquidity premium","private equity returns 2026","AQR capital market assumptions","PE vs public equity","venture capital dispersion"],"word_count":607,"reading_time_minutes":3,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-illiquidity-premium.jpg","summary":"AQR's 2026 data shows private equity returning 4.2% versus 3.9% for public equities. The 30bp illiquidity premium barely justifies years of lockup."},{"id":"061fd0e8364a1a0ef884da594bc9d916","slug":"","title":"Britain's Strategic Limbo","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/britains-strategic-limbo/","description":"Britain faces strategic isolation: locked out of EU defense cooperation, unwilling to join Trump's coalition. The mid-Atlantic bridge has nowhere to land.","date_published":"2026-01-28","date_modified":"2026-02-23","type":"Analysis","categories":["Macro"],"keywords":["UK EU defense cooperation","Brexit defense policy","SAFE fund exclusion","Britain strategic isolation","post-Brexit foreign policy","defense procurement economics","trade bloc exclusion","economic isolation"],"word_count":414,"reading_time_minutes":2,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/0016.png","summary":"Britain faces strategic isolation: locked out of EU defense cooperation, unwilling to join Trump's coalition. The mid-Atlantic bridge has nowhere to land."},{"id":"91924cde0386a2ff81652e6dd59ece17","slug":"","title":"The Rise of Middle Power Realism","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-rise-of-middle-power-realism/","description":"At Davos 2026, Carney told allies to take down the signs of the liberal order. Middle powers are learning to navigate between giants without illusions.","date_published":"2026-01-27","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Analysis","categories":["Macro"],"keywords":["Mark Carney Davos 2026 speech","middle power foreign policy","Donroe Doctrine Trump","Canada EU SAFE defense","rules-based international order collapse","trade policy economics","tariff response strategy","economic coercion"],"word_count":758,"reading_time_minutes":4,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/0015.png","summary":"At Davos 2026, Carney told allies to take down the signs of the liberal order. Middle powers are learning to navigate between giants without illusions."},{"id":"e9eba6adf46865a7d367bd5412c7925b","slug":"","title":"The Most Expensive Assumption in AI","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-most-expensive-assumption-in-ai/","description":"Sara Hooker's research challenges the trillion-dollar scaling thesis. Compact models now outperform massive ones as diminishing returns hit AI.","date_published":"2026-01-26","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["AI scaling laws","diminishing returns AI","small vs large language models","Sara Hooker scaling","AI infrastructure investing"],"word_count":664,"reading_time_minutes":4,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-scaling.jpg","summary":"Sara Hooker's research challenges the trillion-dollar scaling thesis. Compact models now outperform massive ones as diminishing returns hit AI."},{"id":"ae7d98fce969bb402c2b721d011d8a74","slug":"","title":"Against All Odds: The Mathematics of 'Provably Fair' Casino Games","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/against-all-odds-the-mathematics-of-provably-fair-casino-games/","description":"Statistical analysis of 20,000 crash game rounds verifies the 97% RTP claim. But 179 rounds per hour means expected losses exceed 500% of wagers hourly.","date_published":"2026-01-25","date_modified":"2026-05-17","type":"Project","categories":["Quantitative Finance"],"keywords":["provably fair gambling","crash game mathematics","RTP statistical testing","gambling house edge","crash game strategy"],"word_count":677,"reading_time_minutes":4,"doi":"10.2139/ssrn.6065213","image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-casino.jpg","summary":"Statistical analysis of 20,000 crash game rounds verifies the 97% RTP claim. But 179 rounds per hour means expected losses exceed 500% of wagers hourly."},{"id":"302468bbc6606ddf2a0121033be87975","slug":"","title":"Enterprise AI Strategy is Backwards","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/enterprise-ai-strategy-is-backwards/","description":"85% of AI projects fail. Only 26% translate pilots to production. The winners automate the coordination layer where employees spend 57% of their workday.","date_published":"2026-01-22","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Essay","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["enterprise AI failure","AI implementation strategy","coordination layer AI","AI pilot to production","workplace AI productivity"],"word_count":389,"reading_time_minutes":2,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-ai-strat-backwards.jpg","summary":"85% of AI projects fail. Only 26% translate pilots to production. The winners automate the coordination layer where employees spend 57% of their workday."},{"id":"17592903a19a9a340ff77692b935fde7","slug":"if-you-want-to-understand-any-society-look-at-what-it-creates","title":"If you want to understand any society, look at what it creates","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/if-you-want-to-understand-any-society-look-at-what-it-creates/","description":"What Victorian lampposts, software interfaces, and ordinary objects reveal about a society's values.","date_published":"2026-01-19","date_modified":"2026-09-18","type":"Commentary","categories":["Commentary"],"keywords":[],"word_count":784,"reading_time_minutes":4,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/notes/0009.png","summary":"What Victorian lampposts, software interfaces, and ordinary objects reveal about a society's values."},{"id":"a406a34db0299576cf80689e4b91feb8","slug":"","title":"Big in Japan","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/big-in-japan/","description":"Japan holds $5 trillion in foreign assets. With 30-year JGB yields now above 3%, the carry trade that defined Japanese investing faces new friction.","date_published":"2026-01-19","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["Macro"],"keywords":["yen carry trade","Japan Treasury holdings","JGB yields","Japanese capital repatriation","Japan foreign assets"],"word_count":345,"reading_time_minutes":2,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/0014.png","summary":"Japan holds $5 trillion in foreign assets. With 30-year JGB yields now above 3%, the carry trade that defined Japanese investing faces new friction."},{"id":"b7f9fbc4bc74b05f2cb615db2fc8cf2d","slug":"dont-lie","title":"Don't lie","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/dont-lie/","description":"Why honesty preserves judgment and trust, while discretion keeps truthful communication useful.","date_published":"2026-01-18","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["Commentary"],"keywords":[],"word_count":866,"reading_time_minutes":5,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/notes/0007.png","summary":"Why honesty preserves judgment and trust, while discretion keeps truthful communication useful."},{"id":"9660c837c072d9d57264a0ebfe9d7e0a","slug":"everything-is-amazing-right-now-and-nobodys-happy","title":"Everything is amazing right now and nobody's happy","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/everything-is-amazing-right-now-and-nobodys-happy/","description":"A reflection on technological progress, dissatisfaction, gratitude, and the restlessness that drives invention.","date_published":"2026-01-16","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["Commentary"],"keywords":[],"word_count":564,"reading_time_minutes":3,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/notes/0004.png","summary":"A reflection on technological progress, dissatisfaction, gratitude, and the restlessness that drives invention."},{"id":"81c7614b936d386db2d8d78b815ab728","slug":"real-foresight-looks-wrong","title":"Real Foresight Looks Wrong","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/real-foresight-looks-wrong/","description":"Why long-term strategic bets often look wrong in real time, and why foresight is positioning rather than prediction.","date_published":"2026-01-16","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["Commentary"],"keywords":[],"word_count":487,"reading_time_minutes":3,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/notes/0003.png","summary":"Why long-term strategic bets often look wrong in real time, and why foresight is positioning rather than prediction."},{"id":"ee06e3b70c0ac82cf52fe341e8026851","slug":"","title":"Ozempic is Reshaping the Fast Food Industry","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/ozempic-is-reshaping-the-fast-food-industry/","description":"Cornell research: GLP-1 users cut grocery spending 5.3%, fast food 8%. With 16% household adoption and savory snacks down 10%, food stocks face headwinds.","date_published":"2026-01-16","date_modified":"2026-05-14","type":"Commentary","categories":["Medicine","Economics"],"keywords":["GLP-1 food industry impact","Ozempic grocery spending","food stocks GLP-1","Wegovy consumer behavior","weight loss drug food sales"],"word_count":724,"reading_time_minutes":4,"external_url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5073929","image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-glp1-food.jpg","summary":"Cornell research: GLP-1 users cut grocery spending 5.3%, fast food 8%. With 16% household adoption and savory snacks down 10%, food stocks face headwinds."},{"id":"82f00ef4bc78430b2b32e7720e21dfa0","slug":"","title":"Does AI mean the demand on labor goes up?","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/does-ai-mean-the-demand-on-labor-goes-up/","description":"AI was supposed to free us. The Jevons paradox plays out in real time: efficiency expands workload, not leisure. 77% of workers say AI added to their work.","date_published":"2026-01-15","date_modified":"2026-02-23","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI","Economics"],"keywords":["AI productivity paradox","Jevons paradox AI","AI increasing workload","future of work AI","Parkinson's law AI"],"word_count":407,"reading_time_minutes":2,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/0005.png","summary":"AI was supposed to free us. The Jevons paradox plays out in real time: efficiency expands workload, not leisure. 77% of workers say AI added to their work."},{"id":"3bb502cf6a51ce548718d5d079c62b22","slug":"","title":"Repo might be even bigger than we thought","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/repo-might-be-even-bigger-than-we-thought/","description":"New OFR data reveals $12.6 trillion in daily repo exposures—$700 billion larger than previous estimates. The plumbing of modern money remains poorly understood.","date_published":"2026-01-13","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["Macro"],"keywords":["repo market","shadow banking","Standing Repo Facility","money market liquidity","Zoltan Pozsar"],"word_count":924,"reading_time_minutes":5,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/0012.png","summary":"New OFR data reveals $12.6 trillion in daily repo exposures—$700 billion larger than previous estimates. The plumbing of modern money remains poorly understood."},{"id":"42a0f1b7e6efba7a9d487d59bc4dee1c","slug":"","title":"The Market Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-market-can-stay-irrational-longer-than-you-can-stay-solvent/","description":"Steve Eisman explains how U.S. equity markets have structurally decoupled from everyday economic reality through concentration and passive investing.","date_published":"2026-01-11","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["Investing"],"keywords":["stock market decoupling economy","S\u0026P 500 concentration risk","passive investing market impact","Steve Eisman market thesis","K-shaped economy stocks"],"word_count":707,"reading_time_minutes":4,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-unmoored-market.jpg","summary":"Steve Eisman explains how U.S. equity markets have structurally decoupled from everyday economic reality through concentration and passive investing."},{"id":"3a393ebbfc57aab423113bea08894c04","slug":"","title":"Social Media Success Prediction: BERT Models for Post Titles","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/social-media-success-prediction-bert-models-for-post-titles/","description":"Training RoBERTa to predict Hacker News success revealed temporal leakage inflating metrics. How temporal splits, calibration, and regularization fix it.","date_published":"2026-01-10","date_modified":"2026-05-17","type":"Project","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["Hacker News prediction model","temporal train test split ML","RoBERTa text classification","model calibration isotonic regression","machine learning overfitting regularization"],"word_count":915,"reading_time_minutes":5,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-hn-predictor.jpg","summary":"Training RoBERTa to predict Hacker News success revealed temporal leakage inflating metrics. How temporal splits, calibration, and regularization fix it."},{"id":"a9c736437258f09f4bf35d5f3ec449e2","slug":"","title":"Beyond Vector Search: Why LLMs Need Episodic Memory","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/beyond-vector-search-why-llms-need-episodic-memory/","description":"Context windows aren't memory. EM-LLM's episodic architecture, knowledge graph tools like Mem0 and Letta, and why vectors fail for sequential data.","date_published":"2026-01-09","date_modified":"2026-01-12","type":"Essay","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["LLM memory architecture","episodic memory AI","knowledge graph LLM memory","vector database limitations RAG","KV cache optimization transformer"],"word_count":522,"reading_time_minutes":3,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-llm-memory2.jpg","summary":"Context windows aren't memory. EM-LLM's episodic architecture, knowledge graph tools like Mem0 and Letta, and why vectors fail for sequential data."},{"id":"ee58b27c23a6ee0f0392b1bcd557ece1","slug":"","title":"65% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment, and They Outperform","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/65-of-hacker-news-posts-have-negative-sentiment-and-they-outperform/","description":"Sentiment analysis of 32,000 Hacker News posts shows 65% skew negative and earn 27% more points. Six transformer and LLM models tested, full data included.","date_published":"2026-01-07","date_modified":"2026-03-15","type":"Project","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["Hacker News sentiment analysis","negativity bias social media engagement","BERT RoBERTa sentiment comparison","attention inequality power law social media","Hacker News data analysis engagement","DistilBERT sentiment classification","transformer model NLP comparison","social media negativity bias research","Gini coefficient content distribution","tech community sentiment research","Hacker News score distribution","multi-model sentiment comparison","negative content engagement premium","power law online communities","NLP sentiment classification pipeline"],"word_count":339,"reading_time_minutes":2,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-hn-sentiment.jpg","summary":"Sentiment analysis of 32,000 Hacker News posts shows 65% skew negative and earn 27% more points. Six transformer and LLM models tested, full data included."},{"id":"0925fa8935f282eb83532fb1f43b1e21","slug":"","title":"Praise by Name, Criticize by Category: Warren Buffett Retires at 95","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/praise-by-name-criticize-by-category-warren-buffett-retires-at-95/","description":"Buffett exits after paying $26.8B in taxes. What 60 years of letters reveal about admitting mistakes, insurance float, and why Abel inherits $300B in cash.","date_published":"2026-01-06","date_modified":"2026-01-06","type":"Essay","categories":["Investing"],"keywords":["Warren Buffett retirement 2026","Berkshire Hathaway insurance float","Buffett shareholder letters lessons","Greg Abel Berkshire CEO","Berkshire capital allocation strategy"],"word_count":857,"reading_time_minutes":5,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-buffet-retirement.jpg","summary":"Buffett exits after paying $26.8B in taxes. What 60 years of letters reveal about admitting mistakes, insurance float, and why Abel inherits $300B in cash."},{"id":"dcfb1cfe00867f0c10aad4b665ff6be0","slug":"","title":"RSS Swipr: Find Blogs Like You Find Your Dates","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/rss-swipr-find-blogs-like-you-find-your-dates/","description":"Build an open-source ML RSS reader with swipe interface. Uses MPNet embeddings and Thompson sampling for personalized feeds that escape the filter bubble.","date_published":"2026-01-05","date_modified":"2026-05-17","type":"Project","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["machine learning RSS reader","Thompson sampling recommendation","MPNet sentence embeddings","personalized RSS Python open source","filter bubble RSS alternative"],"word_count":750,"reading_time_minutes":4,"image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-rss-swipr.jpg","summary":"Build an open-source ML RSS reader with swipe interface. Uses MPNet embeddings and Thompson sampling for personalized feeds that escape the filter bubble."},{"id":"62579e3486507de3f70f4d3746afb7a7","slug":"bitcoin-security","title":"Bitcoin Security","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/bitcoin-security/","description":"Academic paper finds Bitcoin 51% attack costs $6.77B. Derivatives enable attack profits via shorting. Analysis of why attacks haven't happened yet.","date_published":"2026-01-02","date_modified":"2026-09-18","type":"Commentary","categories":["Finance","Tech"],"keywords":["Bitcoin 51% attack cost","Bitcoin derivatives security risk","proof of work security economics","cryptocurrency double spend attack","Bitcoin hash rate attack"],"word_count":696,"reading_time_minutes":4,"external_url":"https://hal.science/hal-04616643v1","image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-bitcoin-security.jpg","summary":"Academic paper finds Bitcoin 51% attack costs $6.77B. Derivatives enable attack profits via shorting. Analysis of why attacks haven't happened yet."},{"id":"6394991463263d80ea6ce3b2c17794d2","slug":"","title":"Apple's AI Bet: Playing the Long Game or Missing the Moment?","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/apples-ai-bet-playing-the-long-game-or-missing-the-moment/","description":"Apple's $157B cash pile and Gemini-powered Siri shift show a restrained AI strategy. Analysis of whether Apple wins as AI models become commodities.","date_published":"2025-12-30","date_modified":"2026-01-03","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["Apple AI strategy","Apple Siri Gemini update","AI model commoditization","Big Tech AI spending","Apple Intelligence vs ChatGPT"],"word_count":473,"reading_time_minutes":3,"external_url":"https://www.theinformation.com/articles/2026-predictions-apple-will-reverse-ai-slump","image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-apple-ai-strategy.jpg","summary":"Apple's $157B cash pile and Gemini-powered Siri shift show a restrained AI strategy. 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Full allocation rationale."},{"id":"48d897eac8cdd045529a350cc8abb70c","slug":"","title":"Not Logan Roy: Netflix vs. Paramount's Bidding War","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/not-logan-roy-netflix-vs.-paramounts-bidding-war/","description":"Netflix's $72B Warner Bros deal vs Paramount's hostile $30/share tender. 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Data-driven analysis of how complementary assets collapse."},{"id":"297178cbaae393bda626bd382e2d9eea","slug":"gratitude","title":"Gratitude","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/gratitude/","description":"Sam Harris on gratitude: how reflecting on potential losses can transform our mindset and help appreciate ordinary moments.","date_published":"2025-12-01","date_modified":"2026-09-18","type":"Commentary","categories":["Economics"],"keywords":["gratitude practice","Sam Harris","mindfulness meditation","mental reframing","perspective shift","emotional wellbeing","stress management","appreciation techniques","present moment awareness","psychological transformation","mindful living","gratitude research","contemplative practice","mental health","conscious awareness"],"word_count":514,"reading_time_minutes":3,"external_url":"https://dynamic.wakingup.com/course/CO12EEC99?source=content%20share\u0026share_id=2A1E6620\u0026pack=PK94738\u0026code=SCD12FF3B","image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-gratitude.jpg","summary":"Sam Harris on gratitude: how reflecting on potential losses can transform our mindset and help appreciate ordinary moments."},{"id":"e32e53d07df53d14c6e89df7a3fa72fa","slug":"","title":"Michael Burry's $379 Newsletter","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/michael-burrys-379-newsletter/","description":"Michael Burry launches Substack warning AI markets mirror 1999. 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Value is flowing to applications, not model providers."},{"id":"2dcea7b17bffd512e4040bfb1c3b1ee8","slug":"","title":"Weather Forecasts Have Improved a Lot","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/weather-forecasts-have-improved-a-lot/","description":"Four-day forecasts now match one-day accuracy from 30 years ago. 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What GLP-1 means for AUD treatment."},{"id":"514f051a31a0116bb25bfb3c6bc948a5","slug":"","title":"AI Models as Standalone P\u0026Ls","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-models-as-standalone-pls/","description":"OpenAI lost $11.5B in one quarter. But Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei argues each AI model is independently profitable. The assumptions behind the math.","date_published":"2025-11-09","date_modified":"2026-05-14","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["OpenAI losses","AI model profitability","AI training costs","OpenAI business model","Dario Amodei profitability"],"word_count":858,"reading_time_minutes":5,"external_url":"https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/29/microsoft_earnings_q1_26_openai_loss/","image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-aipnl.jpg","summary":"OpenAI lost $11.5B in one quarter. But Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei argues each AI model is independently profitable. The assumptions behind the math."},{"id":"75d9adf17d4ca39a39979623785444b0","slug":"","title":"Working with Models","url":"https://philippdubach.com/posts/working-with-models/","description":"Diffusion models corrupt data into noise, then reverse the process. Learn the math with Stefano Ermon's Stanford CS236 course, free on YouTube.","date_published":"2025-11-08","date_modified":"2026-10-04","type":"Commentary","categories":["AI"],"keywords":["diffusion models explained","Stanford CS236 course","deep generative models tutorial","diffusion model forward process","Stefano Ermon lectures","generative AI architecture","AI model training foundations"],"word_count":120,"reading_time_minutes":1,"external_url":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21890","image":"https://static.philippdubach.com/ograph/ograph-models.jpg","summary":"Diffusion models corrupt data into noise, then reverse the process. 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