Investing

Analysis of markets, valuations, and investment strategy grounded in empirical evidence rather than narrative.

Valuation coverage includes Everything is a DCF Model, applying Mauboussin’s framework across asset classes, and the a16z vs AQR debate over whether AI’s trillion-dollar infrastructure bets will generate proportional returns. The SaaSpocalypse paradox examines how the market simultaneously prices AI capex failure and software disruption.

Market structure posts cover passive investing’s structural fragility, prediction market adverse selection, and the Kalshi debate over where speculation ends and investment begins.

Historical case studies include Michael Burry’s newsletter for dot-com parallels, Buffett’s retirement as a case study in capital allocation, and personal 2026 portfolio allocation as a worked example of thesis-driven positioning.