Investing

Alphabet's free cash flow is on track to fall 90% in 2026. Amazon's is at $11B. $690B in AI capex is cannibalizing the cash that justified these valuations.

Qwen 3.5-35B runs on a gaming PC and matches Claude Sonnet 4.5. When the commodity version is 95% as good and 97% cheaper, you have a pricing problem.

Leopold Aschenbrenner made dated AGI, infrastructure, and political forecasts in Situational Awareness. I assess which calls held up by May 2026, two years on.

a16z sees AI fundamentals thriving with 80% GPU utilization. AQR sees the CAPE at the 96th percentile. Both have data. Both may be right.

How I built a crypto mean reversion trading bot using PELT change point detection on Kraken, targeting altcoin price overreactions with automated execution.

I read 12 AI research reports from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, UBS, and 6 other banks. Here's the consensus they're pushing, and what they're not saying.

Michael Mauboussin's argument that every cash-generating asset is valued through a DCF model. Why this Morgan Stanley paper changed how I think about value.

Rebalancing for 2026: reducing S&P 500 at 40× CAPE, adding Europe after Germany's €1T pivot, and bonds at 4.2% yields. Full allocation rationale.

DORA’s 19 critical ICT providers put bank cloud sovereignty under direct EU oversight, with exit plans and concentration controls facing the CLOUD Act conflict.

Michael Burry launches Substack warning AI markets mirror 1999. His Nvidia-Cisco comparison, the GPU depreciation debate, and what hyperscalers need to justify capex.

My 2026 midyear portfolio review tracks a 5.2% CHF gain against global 60/40 and the S&P 500, the calls that failed, and three allocation changes.

How I built Python portfolio optimization tools, tripled the Sharpe ratio from 0.65 to 1.68, and published the results as an academic paper on MPT.

Nike lost $28B by weakening product development, athlete partnerships, and marketing simultaneously. Data-driven analysis of how complementary assets collapse.

Netflix's $72B Warner Bros deal vs Paramount's hostile $30/share tender. Deal mechanics, aggregation theory, and why internet distributors win streaming.

Buffett exits after paying $26.8B in taxes. What 60 years of letters reveal about admitting mistakes, insurance float, and why Abel inherits $300B in cash.

Four enterprise AI revenue estimates span 40x. A $63.2 billion audit-grade floor provides a defensible basis for testing $690 billion of AI capex.

A Google insider made $1.15M on Polymarket in 24 hours. Israeli soldiers bet classified strike timing. Why prediction markets need insider trading regulation.

Steve Eisman explains how U.S. equity markets have structurally decoupled from everyday economic reality through concentration and passive investing.

AI capex failure and AI replacing all software are mutually exclusive. Why the 2026 SaaSpocalypse is a $2 trillion pricing error, not an extinction event.

Anthropic grew into a $380 billion frontier AI company around a safety mission. Scale may turn that mission from a moat into a constraint.