--- title: "Investing" description: "Market commentary, valuation frameworks, portfolio allocation, and investment strategy — from Buffett's legacy to prediction market microstructure." type: index canonical_url: "https://philippdubach.com/categories/investing/" source_url: "https://philippdubach.com/categories/investing/index.md" --- # Investing Market commentary, valuation frameworks, portfolio allocation, and investment strategy — from Buffett's legacy to prediction market microstructure. Investing here means valuation, not prediction. The frame is Mauboussin’s: identify situations where market price and intrinsic value diverge measurably, then size positions to the conviction that the gap will close. Not “where is the S&P going next year.” More “is this asset worth what it costs, and on what assumptions.” Valuation coverage includes Everything is a DCF Model, applying Mauboussin’s framework across asset classes, and the a16z vs AQR debate over whether AI’s trillion-dollar infrastructure bets will generate proportional returns. The SaaSpocalypse paradox examines how the market simultaneously prices AI capex failure and software disruption. Market structure posts cover prediction market adverse selection and the structural fragility of passive index ownership at current concentration levels. Historical case studies include Michael Burry’s newsletter for dot-com parallels, Buffett’s retirement as a case study in capital allocation, and personal 2026 portfolio allocation as a worked example of thesis-driven positioning. *20 posts. Machine-readable feeds: [/api/posts.json](https://philippdubach.com/api/posts.json) · [/feed.json](https://philippdubach.com/feed.json) · [/index.xml](https://philippdubach.com/index.xml) · [/llms.txt](https://philippdubach.com/llms.txt).* --- - **[Midyear Portfolio Review: Valuations got more extreme, not less](https://philippdubach.com/posts/midyear-portfolio-review-the-rotation-worked-europe-didnt/)** (2026-05-31, updated 2026-08-16) — This 2026 midyear portfolio review tracks a 5.2% CHF gain against global 60/40 and the S&P 500. See what worked, what failed, and three allocation changes. - **[How DORA Made Sovereignty a Bank Problem](https://philippdubach.com/posts/dora-critical-cloud-providers-sovereignty/)** (2026-05-24, updated 2026-08-16) — DORA’s 19 critical ICT providers put bank cloud sovereignty under direct EU oversight. Learn how exit plans, concentration risk, and the CLOUD Act collide. - **[Aschenbrenner's Receipts](https://philippdubach.com/posts/aschenbrenners-receipts/)** (2026-05-21, updated 2026-08-16) — Leopold Aschenbrenner made dated AGI, infrastructure, and political forecasts in Situational Awareness. See which calls held up by May 2026, two years on. - **[Reconciling Enterprise AI Revenue](https://philippdubach.com/posts/reconciling-enterprise-ai-revenue/)** (2026-05-17, updated 2026-08-16) — Four enterprise AI revenue estimates span 40x. See why a $63.2 billion audit-grade floor is the defensible basis for testing $690 billion of AI capex. - **[Two Anthropics](https://philippdubach.com/posts/two-anthropics/)** (2026-05-09, updated 2026-08-16) — Anthropic grew into a $380 billion frontier AI company around a safety mission. Explore why scale may turn that mission from a moat into a constraint. - **[AI Models Are the New Rebar](https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-models-are-the-new-rebar/)** (2026-03-11) — Qwen 3.5-35B runs on a gaming PC and matches Claude Sonnet 4.5. When the commodity version is 95% as good and 97% cheaper, you have a pricing problem. - **[AI Capex Arms Race: Who Blinks First?](https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-capex-arms-race-who-blinks-first/)** (2026-03-08) — Alphabet's free cash flow is on track to fall 90% in 2026. Amazon's is at $11B. $690B in AI capex is cannibalizing the cash that justified these valuations. - **[Every Bulge Bracket Bank Agrees on AI](https://philippdubach.com/posts/every-bulge-bracket-bank-agrees-on-ai/)** (2026-03-01) — I read 12 AI research reports from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, UBS, and 6 other banks. Here's the consensus they're pushing, and what they're not saying. - **[The Absolute Insider Mess of Prediction Markets](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-absolute-insider-mess-of-prediction-markets/)** (2026-02-22) — A Google insider made $1.15M on Polymarket in 24 hours. Israeli soldiers bet classified strike timing. Why prediction markets need insider trading regulation. - **[The SaaSpocalypse Paradox](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-saaspocalypse-paradox/)** (2026-02-13, updated 2026-03-15) — AI capex failure and AI replacing all software are mutually exclusive. Why the 2026 SaaSpocalypse is a $2 trillion pricing error, not an extinction event. - **[Buying the Haystack Might Not Work This Year](https://philippdubach.com/posts/buying-the-haystack-might-not-work-this-year/)** (2026-01-31, updated 2026-05-04) — a16z sees AI fundamentals thriving with 80% GPU utilization. AQR sees the CAPE at the 96th percentile. Both have data. Both may be right. - **[The Market Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-market-can-stay-irrational-longer-than-you-can-stay-solvent/)** (2026-01-11, updated 2026-05-14) — Steve Eisman explains how U.S. equity markets have structurally decoupled from everyday economic reality through concentration and passive investing. - **[Praise by Name, Criticize by Category: Warren Buffett Retires at 95](https://philippdubach.com/posts/praise-by-name-criticize-by-category-warren-buffett-retires-at-95/)** (2026-01-06) — Buffett exits after paying $26.8B in taxes. What 60 years of letters reveal about admitting mistakes, insurance float, and why Abel inherits $300B in cash. - **[How AI is Shaping My Investment Portfolio for 2026](https://philippdubach.com/posts/how-ai-is-shaping-my-investment-portfolio-for-2026/)** (2025-12-12, updated 2026-05-14) — Rebalancing for 2026: reducing S&P 500 at 40× CAPE, adding Europe after Germany's €1T pivot, and bonds at 4.2% yields. Full allocation rationale. - **[Not Logan Roy: Netflix vs. Paramount's Bidding War](https://philippdubach.com/posts/not-logan-roy-netflix-vs.-paramounts-bidding-war/)** (2025-12-09, updated 2026-05-14) — Netflix's $72B Warner Bros deal vs Paramount's hostile $30/share tender. Deal mechanics, aggregation theory, and why internet distributors win streaming. - **[Nike's Crisis and the Economics of Brand Decay](https://philippdubach.com/posts/nikes-crisis-and-the-economics-of-brand-decay/)** (2025-12-02, updated 2026-03-15) — Nike lost $28B by weakening product development, athlete partnerships, and marketing simultaneously. Data-driven analysis of how complementary assets collapse. - **[Michael Burry's $379 Newsletter](https://philippdubach.com/posts/michael-burrys-379-newsletter/)** (2025-11-28, updated 2026-05-14) — Michael Burry launches Substack warning AI markets mirror 1999. His Nvidia-Cisco comparison, the GPU depreciation debate, and what hyperscalers need to justify capex. - **[Everything is a DCF Model](https://philippdubach.com/posts/everything-is-a-dcf-model/)** (2025-10-19, updated 2026-05-04) — Michael Mauboussin's argument that every cash-generating asset is valued through a DCF model. Why this Morgan Stanley paper changed how I think about value. - **[Crypto Mean Reversion Trading](https://philippdubach.com/posts/crypto-mean-reversion-trading/)** (2024-11-11, updated 2026-05-04) — How I built a crypto mean reversion trading bot using PELT change point detection on Kraken, targeting altcoin price overreactions with automated execution. - **[My First 'Optimal' Portfolio](https://philippdubach.com/posts/my-first-optimal-portfolio/)** (2024-03-15, updated 2026-05-17) — How I built Python portfolio optimization tools, tripled the Sharpe ratio from 0.65 to 1.68, and published the results as an academic paper on MPT. --- Canonical: https://philippdubach.com/categories/investing/ This file is the canonical machine-readable variant of https://philippdubach.com/categories/investing/. Author: Philipp D. Dubach (https://philippdubach.com/).