Zoltan Pozsar’s Bretton Woods III provides one framework for monetary change. Related essays cover repo markets, Japan’s yen carry trade, inflation and European payment systems. Other essays examine middle powers and Britain after Brexit.
Macro
Macro analysis covers Bretton Woods III, repo markets and currency risk, including inflation and European payment systems.
- Big in Japan
Japan holds $5 trillion in foreign assets. With 30-year JGB yields now above 3%, the carry trade that defined Japanese investing faces new friction.
- Britain's Strategic Limbo
Britain faces strategic isolation: locked out of EU defense cooperation, unwilling to join Trump's coalition. The mid-Atlantic bridge has nowhere to land.
- Dual Mandate Tensions
New NBER paper shows optimal Fed policy should partially accommodate tariff inflation, exposing a fault line in the dual mandate when prices and jobs conflict.
- Europe's $24 Trillion Payment Breakup Is Really a Bet on Infrastructure Arbitrage
The Wero payment system targets a 1.0–1.2 percentage-point fee gap through SEPA Instant. See how EuroPA could challenge Visa and Mastercard across Europe.
- John Cochrane’s Lesson on Inflation
John Cochrane’s inflation lecture connects fiscal theory, government debt and interest rates. I examine the argument and its implications for AI investment.
- Krugman, Fable 5, and Europe in Decline?
European tech sovereignty became concrete when US export controls shut off Fable 5 worldwide. The deeper risk is revocable access to AI, cloud, and chips.
- People Live in Levels, Not Rates
Prices rose 25% since 2020 and won't come back. The levels-vs-rates problem explains the vibecession, the Stewart-Thaler debate, and why nobody trusts economists.
- Pozsar's Bretton Woods III: The Framework [1/2]
How freezing Russian reserves sparked Bretton Woods III: Pozsar's framework on inside money, outside money, and the shift to a commodity-backed monetary order.
- Pozsar's Bretton Woods III: Three Years Later [2/2]
Assess Bretton Woods III after three years: central-bank gold buying rose, foreign Treasury holdings fell, yet the dollar remained dominant in global finance.
- Repo might be even bigger than we thought
New OFR data reveals $12.6 trillion in daily repo exposures—$700 billion larger than previous estimates. The plumbing of modern money remains poorly understood.
- The Rise of Middle Power Realism
At Davos 2026, Carney told allies to take down the signs of the liberal order. Middle powers are learning to navigate between giants without illusions.