---
title: "Philipp D. Dubach"
description: "Independent writing and research on quantitative finance, machine learning, and complex systems."
type: index
canonical_url: "https://philippdubach.com/"
source_url: "https://philippdubach.com/index.md"
---

# Philipp D. Dubach

Independent writing and research on quantitative finance, machine learning, and complex systems.

Philipp D. Dubach writes about the structural mechanics of artificial intelligence, capital markets, and complex systems.


*100 posts. Machine-readable feeds: [/api/posts.json](https://philippdubach.com/api/posts.json) · [/feed.json](https://philippdubach.com/feed.json) · [/index.xml](https://philippdubach.com/index.xml) · [/llms.txt](https://philippdubach.com/llms.txt).*

---

- **[The OpenAI–Hugging Face Incident in Plain English](https://philippdubach.com/posts/openai-hugging-face-incident-plain-english/)** (2026-08-16) — The OpenAI–Hugging Face incident involved about 17,600 recovered agent actions. See what they accessed, what did not ship, and which evaluation controls matter.
- **[Put the Model in the Basement](https://philippdubach.com/posts/put-the-model-in-the-basement/)** (2026-08-15, updated 2026-08-16) — Test a Swiss sovereign AI business case: a 64-GPU local inference cluster, $7 million initial cost, 70% use, CHF 7.4 million revenue, and three-year payback.
- **[I Tried Kimi K3 Inside Claude Code](https://philippdubach.com/posts/kimi-k3-inside-claude-code/)** (2026-07-19, updated 2026-08-16) — I tested Kimi K3 in Claude Code through OpenRouter and rebuilt a frontend for $7.18. See the fixed-token-mix Claude costs and open-weight economics in practice.
- **[Krugman, Fable 5, and Europe in Decline?](https://philippdubach.com/posts/krugman-fable5-europe-decline/)** (2026-06-22, updated 2026-08-16) — European tech sovereignty became concrete when US export controls shut off Fable 5 worldwide. The deeper risk is revocable access to AI, cloud, and chips.
- **[Degoogling cost me my YouTube feed, so I made my own](https://philippdubach.com/posts/degoogling-cost-me-my-youtube-feed-so-i-made-my-own/)** (2026-06-14, updated 2026-08-16) — See how I built a self-hosted YouTube subscription feed with public RSS, no API key, Shorts filtering, privacy-enhanced embeds, caching, and timeouts.
- **[Midyear Portfolio Review: Valuations got more extreme, not less](https://philippdubach.com/posts/midyear-portfolio-review-the-rotation-worked-europe-didnt/)** (2026-05-31, updated 2026-08-16) — This 2026 midyear portfolio review tracks a 5.2% CHF gain against global 60/40 and the S&P 500. See what worked, what failed, and three allocation changes.
- **[How DORA Made Sovereignty a Bank Problem](https://philippdubach.com/posts/dora-critical-cloud-providers-sovereignty/)** (2026-05-24, updated 2026-08-16) — DORA’s 19 critical ICT providers put bank cloud sovereignty under direct EU oversight. Learn how exit plans, concentration risk, and the CLOUD Act collide.
- **[Moving the blog stack to Europe (kind of)](https://philippdubach.com/posts/moving-the-blog-stack-to-europe-kind-of/)** (2026-05-24) — How I moved a Hugo blog from GitHub Pages to a Hetzner box in Europe, switched object storage to Cloudflare R2 EU, and what I kept on US infrastructure.
- **[Aschenbrenner's Receipts](https://philippdubach.com/posts/aschenbrenners-receipts/)** (2026-05-21, updated 2026-08-16) — Leopold Aschenbrenner made dated AGI, infrastructure, and political forecasts in Situational Awareness. See which calls held up by May 2026, two years on.
- **[Reconciling Enterprise AI Revenue](https://philippdubach.com/posts/reconciling-enterprise-ai-revenue/)** (2026-05-17, updated 2026-08-16) — Four enterprise AI revenue estimates span 40x. See why a $63.2 billion audit-grade floor is the defensible basis for testing $690 billion of AI capex.
- **[What Claude Thinks But Doesn't Say](https://philippdubach.com/posts/what-claude-thinks-but-doesnt-say/)** (2026-05-11) — Anthropic's natural language autoencoders translate Claude's activations into readable text. The method works. The press release skips three structural problems.
- **[Two Anthropics](https://philippdubach.com/posts/two-anthropics/)** (2026-05-09, updated 2026-08-16) — Anthropic grew into a $380 billion frontier AI company around a safety mission. Explore why scale may turn that mission from a moat into a constraint.
- **[The Anatomy of a Decentralized Prediction Market: Notes from the Polymarket Order Book](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-anatomy-of-a-decentralized-prediction-market-notes-from-the-polymarket-order-book/)** (2026-05-02, updated 2026-08-16) — Explore Polymarket microstructure using 30.3 billion order-book events: spreads, depth, wash trading, and a key trade-direction error for researchers.
- **[Karpathy's Software 3.0 Playbook](https://philippdubach.com/posts/karpathys-software-3.0-playbook/)** (2026-05-01) — Twelve lessons from Andrej Karpathy's Sequoia interview: Software 3.0, vibe coding versus agentic engineering, jagged intelligence, and why December 2024 was the inflection most people missed.
- **[F3ED Can't Call an Ace: Fixing a NeurIPS 2024 Tennis Model](https://philippdubach.com/posts/f3ed-cant-call-an-ace-fixing-a-neurips-2024-tennis-model/)** (2026-04-29) — F3ED, the NeurIPS 2024 tennis shot detector, mislabels 73% of single-shot serve unforced errors. A 23-line scoreboard OCR reconciler fixes them.
- **[Inside PRAGMA: Revolut's Foundation Model for Banking](https://philippdubach.com/posts/inside-pragma-revoluts-foundation-model-for-banking/)** (2026-04-26) — Revolut's PRAGMA is a 1B-parameter encoder trained on 24B banking events. Reading the paper, comparing with Nubank's nuFormer, planning a rebuild.
- **[The Moral Philosophy of Investing in Ignorance](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-moral-philosophy-of-investing-in-ignorance/)** (2026-04-22, updated 2026-04-26) — Constraint arbitrage, the sidecar problem, and who bears the distributional cost of investing under ignorance. The final installment of Edge of Knowledge.
- **[Bet Sizing at the Frontier](https://philippdubach.com/posts/bet-sizing-at-the-frontier/)** (2026-04-17, updated 2026-04-26) — The Kelly Criterion assumes you know your probability of winning. In a UU world, you don't, and heuristics like Zeckhauser's Maxim B replace false precision.
- **[Do Not Disturb My Circles](https://philippdubach.com/posts/do-not-disturb-my-circles/)** (2026-04-13, updated 2026-04-15) — AlphaFold cost under $1M to train. OpenAI spends $2.3B on inference. The chatbot era consumed the talent and compute that could have cured diseases.
- **[The Geometry of Who Knows What](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-geometry-of-who-knows-what/)** (2026-04-13, updated 2026-04-26) — When neither side can define the states of the world, adverse selection fears are misplaced. Zeckhauser's information matrices and constraint arbitrage.
- **[Why Lilly's Weight Loss Pill Isn't a Peptide](https://philippdubach.com/posts/why-lillys-weight-loss-pill-isnt-a-peptide/)** (2026-04-09) — Oral semaglutide destroys 99% of its active ingredient per dose. Lilly's Foundayo skips the problem entirely. Inside the $70B oral GLP-1 pill race.
- **[Ambiguity by Design](https://philippdubach.com/posts/ambiguity-by-design/)** (2026-04-08, updated 2026-04-26) — Ellsberg proved people flee unknown odds. Zeckhauser showed their flight creates mispricing. Part 2 on ambiguity aversion, comparative ignorance, and investing.
- **[Three Kinds of Not-Knowing](https://philippdubach.com/posts/three-kinds-of-not-knowing/)** (2026-04-04, updated 2026-04-26) — Knightian uncertainty splits not-knowing into risk, uncertainty, and ignorance. A century after Knight and Keynes, most of investing still ignores the split.
- **[On-Device AI Models Will Be The New Reason to Upgrade Your Phone](https://philippdubach.com/posts/on-device-ai-models-will-be-the-new-reason-to-upgrade-your-phone/)** (2026-03-25, updated 2026-03-26) — Smartphones haven't had a compelling upgrade story in years. On-device AI models, distilled from frontier systems like Gemini, are about to change that. Parameters are the new megapixels.
- **[AI Can Now Design Drugs in Seconds; We Still Can't Tell You If They Work.](https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-can-now-design-drugs-in-seconds-we-still-cant-tell-you-if-they-work./)** (2026-03-18, updated 2026-03-24) — IsoDDE doubles AlphaFold 3 on hard benchmarks and beats physics-based gold standards. But no AI drug has FDA approval. What $4B in pharma deals actually mean.
- **[The Last Architecture Designed by Hand](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-last-architecture-designed-by-hand/)** (2026-03-16) — The transformer's limits are now mathematical proofs, not empirical hunches. Hybrids are in production. AI is searching for its own replacement. Here's what comes after.
- **[MCP vs A2A in 2026: How the AI Protocol War Ends](https://philippdubach.com/posts/mcp-vs-a2a-in-2026-how-the-ai-protocol-war-ends/)** (2026-03-15, updated 2026-03-16) — MCP leads with 97M monthly SDK downloads and 10,000+ servers. A2A fills a different layer. Analysis of the agentic AI standards war with historical parallels.
- **[AI Models Are the New Rebar](https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-models-are-the-new-rebar/)** (2026-03-11) — Qwen 3.5-35B runs on a gaming PC and matches Claude Sonnet 4.5. When the commodity version is 95% as good and 97% cheaper, you have a pricing problem.
- **[AI Capex Arms Race: Who Blinks First?](https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-capex-arms-race-who-blinks-first/)** (2026-03-08) — Alphabet's free cash flow is on track to fall 90% in 2026. Amazon's is at $11B. $690B in AI capex is cannibalizing the cash that justified these valuations.
- **[93% of Developers Use AI Coding Tools. Productivity Hasn't Moved.](https://philippdubach.com/posts/93-of-developers-use-ai-coding-tools.-productivity-hasnt-moved./)** (2026-03-04, updated 2026-03-05) — METR found experienced developers 19% slower with AI, despite feeling 20% faster. At 92.6% adoption, organizational productivity gains remain roughly 10%.
- **[The Physics Department That Slowed Down](https://philippdubach.com/posts/peter-thiels-physics-department/)** (2026-03-02) — Peter Thiel says physics stalled in 1972. Then GPT-5.2 proved a new result in theoretical physics. The 75:1 AI compute gap between commerce and science.
- **[Every Bulge Bracket Bank Agrees on AI](https://philippdubach.com/posts/every-bulge-bracket-bank-agrees-on-ai/)** (2026-03-01) — I read 12 AI research reports from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, UBS, and 6 other banks. Here's the consensus they're pushing, and what they're not saying.
- **[When AI Labs Become Defense Contractors](https://philippdubach.com/posts/when-ai-labs-become-defense-contractors/)** (2026-03-01, updated 2026-03-15) — The Anthropic-Pentagon standoff isn't an ethics story. It's a replay of the 1993 Last Supper that consolidated 51 defense primes into 5, at Silicon Valley speed.
- **[People Live in Levels, Not Rates](https://philippdubach.com/posts/people-live-in-levels-not-rates/)** (2026-02-28) — Prices rose 25% since 2020 and won't come back. The levels-vs-rates problem explains the vibecession, the Stewart-Thaler debate, and why nobody trusts economists.
- **[Novo Was Europe's Most Valuable Company](https://philippdubach.com/posts/novo-was-europes-most-valuable-company/)** (2026-02-23) — Novo Nordisk lost 75% since June 2024. CagriSema failed vs Zepbound, US pricing is resetting lower, and Lilly leads on every axis. Full breakdown with numbers.
- **[The Absolute Insider Mess of Prediction Markets](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-absolute-insider-mess-of-prediction-markets/)** (2026-02-22) — A Google insider made $1.15M on Polymarket in 24 hours. Israeli soldiers bet classified strike timing. Why prediction markets need insider trading regulation.
- **[Economics of a Super Bowl Ad](https://philippdubach.com/posts/economics-of-a-super-bowl-ad/)** (2026-02-20) — A 30-second Super Bowl spot costs $8M. The real price is $16–23M. The ROI evidence is mixed. A deep look at the pricing, the prisoner's dilemma, and the NFL.
- **[The Impossible Backhand](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-impossible-backhand/)** (2026-02-17, updated 2026-03-15) — AI converges to the mean by design. Ninth-power scaling costs and a 53-point gap on Humanity's Last Exam show domain expertise is appreciating, not declining.
- **[Europe's $24 Trillion Payment Breakup Is Really a Bet on Infrastructure Arbitrage](https://philippdubach.com/posts/europes-24-trillion-payment-breakup-is-really-a-bet-on-infrastructure-arbitrage/)** (2026-02-16, updated 2026-08-16) — The Wero payment system targets a 1.0–1.2 percentage-point fee gap through SEPA Instant. See how EuroPA could challenge Visa and Mastercard across Europe.
- **[Long Volatility Premium](https://philippdubach.com/posts/long-volatility-premium/)** (2026-02-14, updated 2026-08-16) — Can tail hedging improve compound returns? Review 40 years of beta-adjusted long-volatility evidence, plus AQR, Goldman, Universa, puts, trends, and costs.
- **[The SaaSpocalypse Paradox](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-saaspocalypse-paradox/)** (2026-02-13, updated 2026-03-15) — AI capex failure and AI replacing all software are mutually exclusive. Why the 2026 SaaSpocalypse is a $2 trillion pricing error, not an extinction event.
- **[Don't Go Monolithic; The Agent Stack Is Stratifying](https://philippdubach.com/posts/dont-go-monolithic-the-agent-stack-is-stratifying/)** (2026-02-10) — The enterprise AI agent stack is stratifying into six layers with different winners at each. Models commoditize; context — your organizational world model — compounds. A framework for agentic AI architecture decisions.
- **[Where Mobile Money Goes Now](https://philippdubach.com/posts/where-mobile-money-goes-now/)** (2026-02-07, updated 2026-03-15) — Apps overtook games in mobile IAP revenue for the first time in 2025, driven by $3.5B in GenAI growth. Analysis of Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026 report.
- **[Variance Tax](https://philippdubach.com/posts/variance-tax/)** (2026-02-06, updated 2026-05-04) — Variance drain is the hidden cost of volatility: why a portfolio averaging +10% can lose money. The ½σ² formula explains the gap between paper and real returns.
- **[Claude Opus 4.6: Anthropic's New Flagship AI Model for Agentic Coding](https://philippdubach.com/posts/claude-opus-4.6-anthropics-new-flagship-ai-model-for-agentic-coding/)** (2026-02-05, updated 2026-05-17) — Claude Opus 4.6 brings a 1M token context window, 68.8% ARC-AGI-2, and Agent Teams to Claude Code. Full benchmark comparison vs GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro with pricing analysis.
- **[Buying the Haystack Might Not Work This Year](https://philippdubach.com/posts/buying-the-haystack-might-not-work-this-year/)** (2026-01-31, updated 2026-05-04) — a16z sees AI fundamentals thriving with 80% GPU utilization. AQR sees the CAPE at the 96th percentile. Both have data. Both may be right.
- **[Bandits and Agents: Netflix and Spotify Recommender Stacks in 2026](https://philippdubach.com/posts/bandits-and-agents-netflix-and-spotify-recommender-stacks-in-2026/)** (2026-01-30, updated 2026-02-23) — How hybrid recommender systems balance multi-armed bandits against LLM inference cost economics in 2026. A deep dive into Netflix recommendation algorithm architecture and Spotify's AI DJ recommender system.
- **[Is Private Equity Just Beta With a Lockup?](https://philippdubach.com/posts/is-private-equity-just-beta-with-a-lockup/)** (2026-01-29, updated 2026-05-14) — AQR's 2026 data shows private equity returning 4.2% versus 3.9% for public equities. The 30bp illiquidity premium barely justifies years of lockup.
- **[Britain's Strategic Limbo](https://philippdubach.com/posts/britains-strategic-limbo/)** (2026-01-28, updated 2026-02-23) — Britain faces strategic isolation: locked out of EU defense cooperation, unwilling to join Trump's coalition. The mid-Atlantic bridge has nowhere to land.
- **[The Rise of Middle Power Realism](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-rise-of-middle-power-realism/)** (2026-01-27, updated 2026-05-04) — At Davos 2026, Carney told allies to take down the signs of the liberal order. Middle powers are learning to navigate between giants without illusions.
- **[The Most Expensive Assumption in AI](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-most-expensive-assumption-in-ai/)** (2026-01-26, updated 2026-05-17) — Sara Hooker's research challenges the trillion-dollar scaling thesis. Compact models now outperform massive ones as diminishing returns hit AI.
- **[Against All Odds: The Mathematics of 'Provably Fair' Casino Games](https://philippdubach.com/posts/against-all-odds-the-mathematics-of-provably-fair-casino-games/)** (2026-01-25, updated 2026-05-17) — Statistical analysis of 20,000 crash game rounds verifies the 97% RTP claim. But 179 rounds per hour means expected losses exceed 500% of wagers hourly.
- **[Enterprise AI Strategy is Backwards](https://philippdubach.com/posts/enterprise-ai-strategy-is-backwards/)** (2026-01-22, updated 2026-02-23) — 85% of AI projects fail. Only 26% translate pilots to production. The winners automate the coordination layer where employees spend 57% of their workday.
- **[Big in Japan](https://philippdubach.com/posts/big-in-japan/)** (2026-01-19, updated 2026-02-23) — Japan holds $5 trillion in foreign assets. With 30-year JGB yields now above 3%, the carry trade that defined Japanese investing faces new friction.
- **[Ozempic is Reshaping the Fast Food Industry](https://philippdubach.com/posts/ozempic-is-reshaping-the-fast-food-industry/)** (2026-01-16, updated 2026-05-14) — Cornell research: GLP-1 users cut grocery spending 5.3%, fast food 8%. With 16% household adoption and savory snacks down 10%, food stocks face headwinds.
- **[Does AI mean the demand on labor goes up?](https://philippdubach.com/posts/does-ai-mean-the-demand-on-labor-goes-up/)** (2026-01-15, updated 2026-02-23) — AI was supposed to free us. The Jevons paradox plays out in real time: efficiency expands workload, not leisure. 77% of workers say AI added to their work.
- **[Repo might be even bigger than we thought](https://philippdubach.com/posts/repo-might-be-even-bigger-than-we-thought/)** (2026-01-13, updated 2026-05-17) — New OFR data reveals $12.6 trillion in daily repo exposures—$700 billion larger than previous estimates. The plumbing of modern money remains poorly understood.
- **[The Market Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-market-can-stay-irrational-longer-than-you-can-stay-solvent/)** (2026-01-11, updated 2026-05-14) — Steve Eisman explains how U.S. equity markets have structurally decoupled from everyday economic reality through concentration and passive investing.
- **[Social Media Success Prediction: BERT Models for Post Titles](https://philippdubach.com/posts/social-media-success-prediction-bert-models-for-post-titles/)** (2026-01-10, updated 2026-05-17) — Training RoBERTa to predict Hacker News success revealed temporal leakage inflating metrics. How temporal splits, calibration, and regularization fix it.
- **[Beyond Vector Search: Why LLMs Need Episodic Memory](https://philippdubach.com/posts/beyond-vector-search-why-llms-need-episodic-memory/)** (2026-01-09, updated 2026-01-12) — Context windows aren't memory. Explore EM-LLM's episodic architecture, knowledge graph tools like Mem0 and Letta, and why vectors fail for sequential data.
- **[65% of Hacker News Posts Have Negative Sentiment, and They Outperform](https://philippdubach.com/posts/65-of-hacker-news-posts-have-negative-sentiment-and-they-outperform/)** (2026-01-07, updated 2026-03-15) — Sentiment analysis of 32,000 Hacker News posts shows 65% skew negative and earn 27% more points. Six transformer and LLM models tested, full data included.
- **[Praise by Name, Criticize by Category: Warren Buffett Retires at 95](https://philippdubach.com/posts/praise-by-name-criticize-by-category-warren-buffett-retires-at-95/)** (2026-01-06) — Buffett exits after paying $26.8B in taxes. What 60 years of letters reveal about admitting mistakes, insurance float, and why Abel inherits $300B in cash.
- **[RSS Swipr: Find Blogs Like You Find Your Dates](https://philippdubach.com/posts/rss-swipr-find-blogs-like-you-find-your-dates/)** (2026-01-05, updated 2026-05-17) — Build an open-source ML RSS reader with swipe interface. Uses MPNet embeddings and Thompson sampling for personalized feeds that escape the filter bubble.
- **[Apple's AI Bet: Playing the Long Game or Missing the Moment?](https://philippdubach.com/posts/apples-ai-bet-playing-the-long-game-or-missing-the-moment/)** (2025-12-30, updated 2026-01-03) — Apple's $157B cash pile and Gemini-powered Siri shift show a restrained AI strategy. Analysis of whether Apple wins as AI models become commodities.
- **[Building a No-Tracking Newsletter from Markdown to Distribution](https://philippdubach.com/posts/building-a-no-tracking-newsletter-from-markdown-to-distribution/)** (2025-12-24, updated 2026-01-03) — Build a privacy-focused newsletter with Python, Cloudflare Workers KV, and Resend API. Zero tracking, zero cost, full control. Open source code included.
- **[How AI is Shaping My Investment Portfolio for 2026](https://philippdubach.com/posts/how-ai-is-shaping-my-investment-portfolio-for-2026/)** (2025-12-12, updated 2026-05-14) — Rebalancing for 2026: reducing S&P 500 at 40× CAPE, adding Europe after Germany's €1T pivot, and bonds at 4.2% yields. Full allocation rationale.
- **[Not Logan Roy: Netflix vs. Paramount's Bidding War](https://philippdubach.com/posts/not-logan-roy-netflix-vs.-paramounts-bidding-war/)** (2025-12-09, updated 2026-05-14) — Netflix's $72B Warner Bros deal vs Paramount's hostile $30/share tender. Deal mechanics, aggregation theory, and why internet distributors win streaming.
- **[Nike's Crisis and the Economics of Brand Decay](https://philippdubach.com/posts/nikes-crisis-and-the-economics-of-brand-decay/)** (2025-12-02, updated 2026-03-15) — Nike lost $28B by weakening product development, athlete partnerships, and marketing simultaneously. Data-driven analysis of how complementary assets collapse.
- **[Michael Burry's $379 Newsletter](https://philippdubach.com/posts/michael-burrys-379-newsletter/)** (2025-11-28, updated 2026-05-14) — Michael Burry launches Substack warning AI markets mirror 1999. His Nvidia-Cisco comparison, the GPU depreciation debate, and what hyperscalers need to justify capex.
- **[Is AI Really Eating the World? AGI, Networks, Value [2/2]](https://philippdubach.com/posts/is-ai-really-eating-the-world-agi-networks-value-2/2/)** (2025-11-24, updated 2026-05-04) — AGI predictions miss the point. Multiple competing models means price war. Value flows to applications, customer relationships, and vertical integrators.
- **[Is AI Really Eating the World? [1/2]](https://philippdubach.com/posts/is-ai-really-eating-the-world-1/2/)** (2025-11-23, updated 2026-03-15) — Hyperscalers spend $400B on AI, API prices drop 97%, and DeepSeek builds frontier models for $500M. Value is flowing to applications, not model providers.
- **[Weather Forecasts Have Improved a Lot](https://philippdubach.com/posts/weather-forecasts-have-improved-a-lot/)** (2025-11-22, updated 2026-02-22) — Four-day forecasts now match one-day accuracy from 30 years ago. How AI models like WeatherNext 2 use CRPS training to preserve extreme weather signals.
- **[GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in ASUD Treatment](https://philippdubach.com/posts/glp-1-receptor-agonists-in-asud-treatment/)** (2025-11-21, updated 2026-03-15) — A phase 2 RCT shows low-dose semaglutide reduces alcohol craving and heavy drinking with effect sizes exceeding naltrexone. What GLP-1 means for AUD treatment.
- **[AI Models as Standalone P&Ls](https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-models-as-standalone-pls/)** (2025-11-09, updated 2026-05-14) — OpenAI lost $11.5B in one quarter. But Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei argues each AI model is independently profitable. Here's why the math is complicated.
- **[Working with Models](https://philippdubach.com/posts/working-with-models/)** (2025-11-08, updated 2026-02-22) — Diffusion models corrupt data into noise, then reverse the process. Learn the math with Stefano Ermon's Stanford CS236 course, free on YouTube.
- **[Pozsar's Bretton Woods III: Three Years Later [2/2]](https://philippdubach.com/posts/pozsars-bretton-woods-iii-three-years-later-2/2/)** (2025-10-26, updated 2026-08-16) — Assess Bretton Woods III after three years: central-bank gold buying rose, foreign Treasury holdings fell, yet the dollar remained dominant in global finance.
- **[Pozsar's Bretton Woods III: The Framework [1/2]](https://philippdubach.com/posts/pozsars-bretton-woods-iii-the-framework-1/2/)** (2025-10-25, updated 2026-03-15) — How freezing Russian reserves sparked Bretton Woods III: Pozsar's framework on inside money, outside money, and the shift to a commodity-backed monetary order.
- **[Everything is a DCF Model](https://philippdubach.com/posts/everything-is-a-dcf-model/)** (2025-10-19, updated 2026-05-04) — Michael Mauboussin's argument that every cash-generating asset is valued through a DCF model. Why this Morgan Stanley paper changed how I think about value.
- **[Agent-based Systems for Modeling Wealth Distribution](https://philippdubach.com/posts/agent-based-systems-for-modeling-wealth-distribution/)** (2025-08-30, updated 2026-05-17) — Agent-based modeling shows how random market transactions naturally produce extreme wealth concentration, and why even a small wealth tax changes everything.
- **[Visualizing Gradients with PyTorch](https://philippdubach.com/posts/visualizing-gradients-with-pytorch/)** (2025-08-23, updated 2026-04-29) — Build the right mental model for gradients with this PyTorch visualization tool. 2D surface plots with gradient vectors show the direction of steepest ascent.
- **[Counting Cards with Computer Vision](https://philippdubach.com/posts/counting-cards-with-computer-vision/)** (2025-07-06, updated 2026-08-29) — How I trained a YOLOv11 model to detect playing cards at 99.5% accuracy and built a real-time Monte Carlo blackjack odds calculator using computer vision.
- **[Novo Nordisk's Post-Patent Strategy](https://philippdubach.com/posts/novo-nordisks-post-patent-strategy/)** (2025-06-29, updated 2026-05-14) — Novo Nordisk's lead replacement candidate amycretin reported Phase 1 data in The Lancet. How the company is positioning around the 2031 Ozempic patent cliff.
- **[Modeling Glycemic Response with XGBoost](https://philippdubach.com/posts/modeling-glycemic-response-with-xgboost/)** (2025-05-30, updated 2026-02-10) — A hands-on project predicting postprandial glucose curves with XGBoost, Gaussian curve fitting, and 27 engineered features from CGM data. Code on GitHub.
- **[Trading on Market Sentiment](https://philippdubach.com/posts/trading-on-market-sentiment/)** (2025-02-20, updated 2026-05-17) — GPT-3.5 matched RavenPack's 41% returns in a sentiment analysis trading strategy using 2,072 news headlines. See the full backtest results and comparison.
- **[I Built a CGM Data Reader](https://philippdubach.com/posts/i-built-a-cgm-data-reader/)** (2025-01-02, updated 2026-05-04) — Built a CGM data analysis tool with Python to visualize Freestyle Libre 3 glucose data alongside nutrition, workouts, and sleep for endurance cycling.
- **[Crypto Mean Reversion Trading](https://philippdubach.com/posts/crypto-mean-reversion-trading/)** (2024-11-11, updated 2026-05-04) — How I built a crypto mean reversion trading bot using PELT change point detection on Kraken, targeting altcoin price overreactions with automated execution.
- **[My First 'Optimal' Portfolio](https://philippdubach.com/posts/my-first-optimal-portfolio/)** (2024-03-15, updated 2026-05-17) — How I built Python portfolio optimization tools, tripled the Sharpe ratio from 0.65 to 1.68, and published the results as an academic paper on MPT.
- **[The Tech behind this Site](https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-tech-behind-this-site/)** (2024-01-15, updated 2026-05-31) — A Hugo blog tech stack with Cloudflare R2 image hosting, responsive WebP shortcodes, Workers AI social automation, and GitHub Pages CI/CD deployment.
- **[About](https://philippdubach.com/about/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-08-30) — Philipp D. Dubach is an Imperial College London-trained strategy consultant and independent researcher in quantitative finance, economics, and machine learning.
- **[AI FAQ](https://philippdubach.com/faq/ai/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-05-02) — Questions and answers extracted from essays on AI economics, scaling laws, enterprise deployment, agent architecture, and the labor effects of language models.
- **[Economics FAQ](https://philippdubach.com/faq/economics/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-05-02) — Questions and answers on behavioral effects, agent-based simulations, and game theory applied to actual economic decisions.
- **[How to Install YOURLS: Free Self-Hosted URL Shortener on Azure, AWS, Oracle (Ubuntu 22.04)](https://philippdubach.com/standalone/yourls-azure-tutorial/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-08-29) — Complete step-by-step guide to install and configure YOURLS (Your Own URL Shortener) on Azure, AWS, or Oracle Cloud using Ubuntu 22.04. Learn how to set up a free self-hosted URL shortener with Apache, MySQL, and SSL certificates.
- **[Investing FAQ](https://philippdubach.com/faq/investing/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-05-02) — Questions and answers on valuation frameworks, market structure, prediction markets, and thesis-driven portfolio allocation.
- **[Macro FAQ](https://philippdubach.com/faq/macro/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-05-02) — Questions and answers on monetary plumbing, interest rates, currency dynamics, and the structural shifts in the global financial system.
- **[Medicine FAQ](https://philippdubach.com/faq/medicine/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-05-02) — Questions and answers on GLP-1 economics, pharma post-patent strategy, AI drug discovery, and the gap between in-silico predictions and clinical translation.
- **[Past issues](https://philippdubach.com/newsletter-archive/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-08-30) — Browse every issue of the Philipp D. Dubach newsletter by date.
- **[Quantitative Finance FAQ](https://philippdubach.com/faq/quantitative-finance/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-05-02) — Questions and answers on volatility, fat tails, risk theory, portfolio construction, and probability — the mathematical foundations of markets.
- **[Research](https://philippdubach.com/research/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-08-29) — Quantitative research across markets, machine learning, and computational health.
- **[Subscribe](https://philippdubach.com/subscribe/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-08-25) — A monthly email with new writing on quantitative finance, AI, and macro strategy.
- **[Tech FAQ](https://philippdubach.com/faq/tech/)** (0001-01-01, updated 2026-05-02) — Questions and answers from hands-on engineering posts: computer vision, applied machine learning, agentic deployment, and the site's own static-plus-Workers infrastructure.

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Canonical: https://philippdubach.com/
This file is the canonical machine-readable variant of https://philippdubach.com/. Author: Philipp D. Dubach (https://philippdubach.com/).