Latest Posts

Novo Nordisk lost 75% since June 2024. CagriSema failed vs Zepbound, US pricing is resetting lower, and Lilly leads on every axis. Full breakdown with numbers.

A Google insider made $1.15M on Polymarket in 24 hours. Israeli soldiers bet classified strike timing. Why prediction markets need insider trading regulation.

A 30-second Super Bowl spot costs $8M. The real price is $16–23M. The ROI evidence is mixed. A deep look at the pricing, the prisoner's dilemma, and the NFL.

AI converges to the mean by design. On Humanity's Last Exam, top AI scores 37.5% vs human experts at 90%. The data says domain expertise is appreciating.

The EuroPA alliance connected 130 million users across 13 countries overnight. But this isn't really about sovereignty. It's an infrastructure arbitrage exploiting a 100-120bps spread between card network fees and SEPA Instant rails, accidentally protected by the EU's own regulation.

One River's data shows beta-adjusted long volatility outperformed the S&P 500 over 40 years. Goldman, AQR, and Universa agree on the mechanism but disagree on implementation. A synthesis of the evidence.

The market is simultaneously pricing AI capex failure and AI destroying all software. Both cannot be true. A data-driven analysis of the February 2026 enterprise software sell-off, the hyperscaler sustainability question, and why Goldman Sachs, a16z, and the All-In pod see a 20x TAM expansion where the market sees extinction.

The enterprise AI agent stack is stratifying into six layers with different winners at each. Models commoditize; context — your organizational world model — compounds. A framework for agentic AI architecture decisions.

Variance drain is the hidden cost of volatility: why a portfolio averaging +10% can lose money. The ½σ² formula explains the gap between paper and real returns.

Claude Opus 4.6 brings a 1M token context window, 68.8% ARC-AGI-2, and Agent Teams to Claude Code. Full benchmark comparison vs GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro with pricing analysis.