Latest Posts

When neither side can define the states of the world, adverse selection fears are misplaced. Zeckhauser's information matrices and constraint arbitrage.

AlphaFold cost under $1M to train. OpenAI spends $2.3B on inference. The chatbot era consumed the talent and compute that could have cured diseases.

Oral semaglutide destroys 99% of its active ingredient per dose. Lilly's Foundayo skips the problem entirely. Inside the $70B oral GLP-1 pill race.

Ellsberg proved people flee unknown odds. Zeckhauser showed their flight creates mispricing. Part 2 on ambiguity aversion, comparative ignorance, and investing.

Knightian uncertainty splits not-knowing into risk, uncertainty, and ignorance. A century after Knight and Keynes, most of investing still ignores the split.

Smartphones haven't had a compelling upgrade story in years. On-device AI models, distilled from frontier systems like Gemini, are about to change that. Parameters are the new megapixels.

IsoDDE doubles AlphaFold 3 on hard benchmarks and beats physics-based gold standards. But no AI drug has FDA approval. What $4B in pharma deals actually mean.

The transformer's limits are now mathematical proofs, not empirical hunches. Hybrids are in production. AI is searching for its own replacement. Here's what comes after.

MCP leads with 97M monthly SDK downloads and 10,000+ servers. A2A fills a different layer. Analysis of the agentic AI standards war with historical parallels.

Qwen 3.5-35B runs on a gaming PC and matches Claude Sonnet 4.5. When the commodity version is 95% as good and 97% cheaper, you have a pricing problem.