{
  "method": "Read existing result rows; no model training, fitting or new statistical tests.",
  "units": "Relative mean absolute error skill percentages; volume/range scored in the study's log units.",
  "intervals": "Existing descriptive 95% paired date-block intervals, unadjusted for multiple comparisons.",
  "source_sha256": {
    "volume_regression_comparisons.csv": "27342f4e2cccac6ce910bb8b6bfa6ed8afdc1a9cae891a511dfe8696fcb4e1c2",
    "base_feasibility.csv": "9a9ac3f593a4dd7359b4e6f92559abca4a43f81b69a5f36b939efce6b62591d5",
    "extension_results/holdout/baseline_comparisons.csv": "2af2a1e712059190027e58097eef5065706cb6d0483cc014bc1e89a31918d9de",
    "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv": "266e0b4cd2c92d24ebe06507af5847f2b3cfb7ba76e19be24acebba9d19f4eb0"
  },
  "figures": {
    "01-stock-volume.png": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "core",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 1,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "core",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "1",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "150",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "2100",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.21271073955862893",
            "regression_mae": "0.21619303001831086",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.2925024287397146",
            "regression_rmse": "0.2962465366406484",
            "mae_skill": "0.016148763585159116",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.001824431633064423",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.03729284804074565",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.019808319724622808",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.0013694907658108682",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.04392722357457398",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "6028019.9583928585",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "6100053.518829906",
            "pinball_skill": "0.02450745238017839",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.0055683429955199985",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.04704693092130214",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.07416838267784877",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.07602674208470739",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.4923809523809524",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.007619047619047581",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3219378507704961",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "8299288.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.7933333333333336",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0066666666666664876",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.6549633057912192",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "17600834.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.8876190476190475",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.012380952380952492",
            "tsfm_width90": "0.8899824909936812",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "24977582.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9785714285714285",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.0014285714285714457",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.4301637635912212",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "46279708.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.4776190476190476",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.02238095238095239",
            "regression_width50": "0.3101363772722093",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "7731843.711790328",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.7652380952380952",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.03476190476190488",
            "regression_width80": "0.6386845522446685",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "16848437.142814074",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.871904761904762",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.028095238095238062",
            "regression_width90": "0.8880396625647352",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "24935467.283226054",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9690476190476192",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.010952380952380825",
            "regression_width98": "1.4040837569379871",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "43440085.605723955"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "core",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "core",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "150",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "2100",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.26182497194092386",
            "regression_mae": "0.2687074914827518",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.36164673578796636",
            "regression_rmse": "0.3695083241036294",
            "mae_skill": "0.02415894172105232",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.006980978537083803",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.042611124876402305",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.026159502957995278",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.00892415488881415",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.04273784590425502",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "7410958.8317261925",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "7642519.129647273",
            "pinball_skill": "0.029640355265385523",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.013019290890134138",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.04766855674985982",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.09165776969122738",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.09462130159641016",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.46904761904761905",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.030952380952380953",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.37814078966776526",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "9461603.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.7847619047619048",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.015238095238095273",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.7777030150095622",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "20739356.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.8847619047619047",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.015238095238095273",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.0606291003454298",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "30216934.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9738095238095238",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.006190476190476191",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.7110264868963332",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "61112524.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.46285714285714274",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.037142857142857255",
            "regression_width50": "0.372737095505309",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "9186171.580118185",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.7633333333333333",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.036666666666666736",
            "regression_width80": "0.7571219136350692",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "19915103.087190304",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.86",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.040000000000000036",
            "regression_width90": "1.039796469322898",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "29436209.332894284",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9614285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.01857142857142846",
            "regression_width98": "1.6471455305647946",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "54549672.79113405"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 1,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "1",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.20575194204874983",
            "regression_mae": "0.2104824159941536",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.27050544791525716",
            "regression_rmse": "0.27829493281639717",
            "mae_skill": "0.02154254273196336",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.016177919323385498",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.06267357192968585",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.030042508447926847",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.016923628234952536",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.08775714624910128",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "6106681.161160713",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "6347533.851739609",
            "pinball_skill": "0.02394836012420624",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.00781232304399653",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.06182671682564653",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.07079451291454393",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.07258040245066306",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.47500000000000003",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.024999999999999967",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.33458314112254545",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "9933061.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.8214285714285714",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.021428571428571352",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.6871304239545551",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "21214926.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9321428571428572",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.03214285714285714",
            "tsfm_width90": "0.9386447599955966",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "30263910.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9910714285714286",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.011071428571428621",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.5187896881784713",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "56394868.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.46607142857142864",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.033928571428571364",
            "regression_width50": "0.33060903312195744",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "9368441.91781735",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8142857142857143",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.014285714285714235",
            "regression_width80": "0.6888442410274831",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "21424008.561146643",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9214285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.021428571428571463",
            "regression_width90": "0.9349720304441907",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "31032130.18236816",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9928571428571429",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.0128571428571429",
            "regression_width98": "1.5232472079043167",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "56338653.1877346"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.24088598538929934",
            "regression_mae": "0.2532025896776644",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.328157916669859",
            "regression_rmse": "0.3452269536642332",
            "mae_skill": "0.04696402867287688",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.0207603966297155",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.06979312312540413",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.03797313233881692",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.013703107856082213",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.061278325581669305",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "8259859.723660715",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "8370301.217029634",
            "pinball_skill": "0.0450184247522248",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.02409166385692125",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.06342311179803425",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.0835345718680551",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.08758983645193016",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.5160714285714285",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.016071428571428514",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3935657416071211",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "11488543.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.8375",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.03749999999999998",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.817565415586744",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "25474864.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9339285714285713",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.03392857142857131",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.1194145151547024",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "37235464.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9874999999999999",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.007499999999999951",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.810767556939806",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "72279520.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.5142857142857142",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.014285714285714235",
            "regression_width50": "0.3926809936868242",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "11054728.86101222",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8071428571428572",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0071428571428571175",
            "regression_width80": "0.7984961963846665",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "24806427.9025158",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9089285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.008928571428571508",
            "regression_width90": "1.1045706655096044",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "36374822.2599641",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9857142857142857",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.005714285714285672",
            "regression_width98": "1.7592114744037344",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "68130934.72916716"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "core",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 1,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "core",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "1",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "150",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "2100",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.21042665756856876",
            "regression_mae": "0.21619303001831086",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.28983237359520864",
            "regression_rmse": "0.2962465366406484",
            "mae_skill": "0.026757260461829017",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.006429756678284871",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.049184484472089646",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.03155668187225669",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.0070933478287077655",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.05775521345268298",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "5960510.714702382",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "6100053.518829906",
            "pinball_skill": "0.033669117013713556",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.013699259685683087",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.05797583708276634",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.07347519247262761",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.07602674208470739",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.48333333333333334",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.016666666666666663",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.31297296342395603",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "8053752.5",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.7876190476190476",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.012380952380952492",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.6418855857849122",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "17218754.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.8823809523809525",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.017619047619047534",
            "tsfm_width90": "0.8761229955582391",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "24540722.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9776190476190475",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.0023809523809524835",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.4231810388110933",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "45947348.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.4776190476190476",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.02238095238095239",
            "regression_width50": "0.3101363772722093",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "7731843.711790328",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.7652380952380952",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.03476190476190488",
            "regression_width80": "0.6386845522446685",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "16848437.142814074",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.871904761904762",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.028095238095238062",
            "regression_width90": "0.8880396625647352",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "24935467.283226054",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9690476190476192",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.010952380952380825",
            "regression_width98": "1.4040837569379871",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "43440085.605723955"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "core",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "core",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "150",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "2100",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.2602632477311387",
            "regression_mae": "0.2687074914827518",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.35732417314808507",
            "regression_rmse": "0.3695083241036294",
            "mae_skill": "0.029746214882526354",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.010641253591819798",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.04949421508589623",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.03136207444927454",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.012040135191373756",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.050018154281474755",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "7374855.332202381",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "7642519.129647273",
            "pinball_skill": "0.03873007550873782",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.019124114011413083",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.05868866063680446",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.0908014745958421",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.09462130159641016",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.4633333333333334",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.036666666666666625",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.37113479296366375",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "9298226.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.7771428571428572",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.022857142857142798",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.758614622297741",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "20222160.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.8790476190476191",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.020952380952380945",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.0308460112980435",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "29252554.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9723809523809523",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.007619047619047636",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.6666666457766577",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "58086196.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.46285714285714274",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.037142857142857255",
            "regression_width50": "0.372737095505309",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "9186171.580118185",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.7633333333333333",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.036666666666666736",
            "regression_width80": "0.7571219136350692",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "19915103.087190304",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.86",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.040000000000000036",
            "regression_width90": "1.039796469322898",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "29436209.332894284",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9614285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.01857142857142846",
            "regression_width98": "1.6471455305647946",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "54549672.79113405"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 1,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "1",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.20431389669414593",
            "regression_mae": "0.2104824159941536",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.26985974316369365",
            "regression_rmse": "0.27829493281639717",
            "mae_skill": "0.02877833372617499",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.008933871538952705",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.07273371510331288",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.038171710239658936",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.009975029301369705",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.102107815095264",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "6053711.1325892825",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "6347533.851739609",
            "pinball_skill": "0.029568916236881435",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.0013561440306549114",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.07180509216832646",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.0704005165748081",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.07258040245066306",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.4589285714285714",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.04107142857142859",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3222501976149423",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "9418906.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.8232142857142856",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.02321428571428552",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.6763699718884059",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "20597150.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9285714285714287",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.028571428571428692",
            "tsfm_width90": "0.9355103135108946",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "29822074.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9928571428571429",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.0128571428571429",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.5316857797758918",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "56307492.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.46607142857142864",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.033928571428571364",
            "regression_width50": "0.33060903312195744",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "9368441.91781735",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8142857142857143",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.014285714285714235",
            "regression_width80": "0.6888442410274831",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "21424008.561146643",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9214285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.021428571428571463",
            "regression_width90": "0.9349720304441907",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "31032130.18236816",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9928571428571429",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.0128571428571429",
            "regression_width98": "1.5232472079043167",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "56338653.1877346"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.24009769645750373",
            "regression_mae": "0.2532025896776644",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.3294332446719847",
            "regression_rmse": "0.3452269536642332",
            "mae_skill": "0.04942854820953585",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.027590771160308024",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.07113393790979575",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.04067560094066378",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.02093961952430054",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.062142110412230285",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "8160592.483035714",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "8370301.217029634",
            "pinball_skill": "0.04689951408215883",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.029975822742273762",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.06433534788351748",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.08336465104358266",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.08758983645193016",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.507142857142857",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.0071428571428570065",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3897376384053911",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "11134145.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.8410714285714285",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.041071428571428426",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.8046172380447388",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "24557184.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9285714285714286",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.02857142857142858",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.102731108665466",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "35895316.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9874999999999999",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.007499999999999951",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.7954458117485046",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "69820856.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.5142857142857142",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.014285714285714235",
            "regression_width50": "0.3926809936868242",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "11054728.86101222",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8071428571428572",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0071428571428571175",
            "regression_width80": "0.7984961963846665",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "24806427.9025158",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9089285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.008928571428571508",
            "regression_width90": "1.1045706655096044",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "36374822.2599641",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9857142857142857",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.005714285714285672",
            "regression_width98": "1.7592114744037344",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "68130934.72916716"
          }
        }
      ],
      "sha256": "e99b5b787389bf1fd9d6f3c84805d93ab7d6e85cf707929284d139655f8d3e1c",
      "cdn_key": "timestral-01-stock-volume-e99b5b787389.png",
      "width": 1769,
      "height": 900,
      "source_line": null,
      "title": null,
      "subtitle": null
    },
    "02-baselines.png": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "source": "base_feasibility.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "persistence"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "persistence",
            "comparator_kind": "point_only",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider shares)",
            "point_rule": "marginal daily q50",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "base_mae": "0.24088598538964293",
            "comparator_mae": "0.2972277486798215",
            "base_rmse": "0.3281579166687409",
            "comparator_rmse": "0.3902785050832843",
            "mae_skill": "0.18577096535959808",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.09456289384255356",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.2601283386725459",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.21322316949474465",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.09381609811162063",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.3203693757049725",
            "base_original_unit_mae": "8259859.739064473",
            "comparator_original_unit_mae": "10971114.107098725",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": "",
            "base_mean_pinball": "",
            "comparator_mean_pinball": "",
            "base_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "base_positive_return_rate": "",
            "base_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "base_n_directions": "",
            "base_coverage50": "0.5160714285714285",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.016071428571428514",
            "base_width50": "0.3935657416053572",
            "base_original_unit_width50": "11488543.741761832",
            "base_coverage80": "0.8375",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.03749999999999998",
            "base_width80": "0.8175654155871429",
            "base_original_unit_width80": "25474865.658002906",
            "base_coverage90": "0.9339285714285713",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.03392857142857131",
            "base_width90": "1.1194145151555357",
            "base_original_unit_width90": "37235466.11464231",
            "base_coverage98": "0.9874999999999999",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.007499999999999951",
            "base_width98": "1.8107675569410713",
            "base_original_unit_width98": "72279513.68780608",
            "comparator_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "comparator_positive_return_rate": "",
            "comparator_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "comparator_n_directions": "",
            "comparator_coverage50": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap50": "",
            "comparator_width50": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width50": "",
            "comparator_coverage80": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap80": "",
            "comparator_width80": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width80": "",
            "comparator_coverage90": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap90": "",
            "comparator_width90": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width90": "",
            "comparator_coverage98": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap98": "",
            "comparator_width98": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width98": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "base_feasibility.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "rolling20"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "rolling20",
            "comparator_kind": "point_only",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider shares)",
            "point_rule": "marginal daily q50",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "base_mae": "0.24088598538964293",
            "comparator_mae": "0.24972602972267852",
            "base_rmse": "0.3281579166687409",
            "comparator_rmse": "0.3415470856933588",
            "mae_skill": "0.032019982622960075",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.0037236924400815504",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.06415053376401111",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.0276006572633386",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.004749275906272474",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.0631471483735534",
            "base_original_unit_mae": "8259859.739064473",
            "comparator_original_unit_mae": "8698734.012485176",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": "",
            "base_mean_pinball": "",
            "comparator_mean_pinball": "",
            "base_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "base_positive_return_rate": "",
            "base_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "base_n_directions": "",
            "base_coverage50": "0.5160714285714285",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.016071428571428514",
            "base_width50": "0.3935657416053572",
            "base_original_unit_width50": "11488543.741761832",
            "base_coverage80": "0.8375",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.03749999999999998",
            "base_width80": "0.8175654155871429",
            "base_original_unit_width80": "25474865.658002906",
            "base_coverage90": "0.9339285714285713",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.03392857142857131",
            "base_width90": "1.1194145151555357",
            "base_original_unit_width90": "37235466.11464231",
            "base_coverage98": "0.9874999999999999",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.007499999999999951",
            "base_width98": "1.8107675569410713",
            "base_original_unit_width98": "72279513.68780608",
            "comparator_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "comparator_positive_return_rate": "",
            "comparator_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "comparator_n_directions": "",
            "comparator_coverage50": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap50": "",
            "comparator_width50": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width50": "",
            "comparator_coverage80": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap80": "",
            "comparator_width80": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width80": "",
            "comparator_coverage90": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap90": "",
            "comparator_width90": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width90": "",
            "comparator_coverage98": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap98": "",
            "comparator_width98": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width98": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.24088598538929934",
            "regression_mae": "0.2532025896776644",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.328157916669859",
            "regression_rmse": "0.3452269536642332",
            "mae_skill": "0.04696402867287688",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.0207603966297155",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.06979312312540413",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.03797313233881692",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.013703107856082213",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.061278325581669305",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "8259859.723660715",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "8370301.217029634",
            "pinball_skill": "0.0450184247522248",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.02409166385692125",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.06342311179803425",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.0835345718680551",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.08758983645193016",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.5160714285714285",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.016071428571428514",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3935657416071211",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "11488543.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.8375",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.03749999999999998",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.817565415586744",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "25474864.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9339285714285713",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.03392857142857131",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.1194145151547024",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "37235464.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9874999999999999",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.007499999999999951",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.810767556939806",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "72279520.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.5142857142857142",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.014285714285714235",
            "regression_width50": "0.3926809936868242",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "11054728.86101222",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8071428571428572",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0071428571428571175",
            "regression_width80": "0.7984961963846665",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "24806427.9025158",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9089285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.008928571428571508",
            "regression_width90": "1.1045706655096044",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "36374822.2599641",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9857142857142857",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.005714285714285672",
            "regression_width98": "1.7592114744037344",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "68130934.72916716"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/baseline_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "persistence",
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "persistence",
            "mae_skill": "0.1869366827964454",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.08864920766626057",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.26764736882915646",
            "scope": "primary",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/baseline_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "rolling20",
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "rolling20",
            "mae_skill": "0.03360479794706001",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.008401230787624432",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.07312070498135782",
            "scope": "primary",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.24009769645750373",
            "regression_mae": "0.2532025896776644",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.3294332446719847",
            "regression_rmse": "0.3452269536642332",
            "mae_skill": "0.04942854820953585",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.027590771160308024",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.07113393790979575",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.04067560094066378",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.02093961952430054",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.062142110412230285",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "8160592.483035714",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "8370301.217029634",
            "pinball_skill": "0.04689951408215883",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.029975822742273762",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.06433534788351748",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.08336465104358266",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.08758983645193016",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.507142857142857",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.0071428571428570065",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3897376384053911",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "11134145.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.8410714285714285",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.041071428571428426",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.8046172380447388",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "24557184.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9285714285714286",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.02857142857142858",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.102731108665466",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "35895316.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9874999999999999",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.007499999999999951",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.7954458117485046",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "69820856.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.5142857142857142",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.014285714285714235",
            "regression_width50": "0.3926809936868242",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "11054728.86101222",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8071428571428572",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0071428571428571175",
            "regression_width80": "0.7984961963846665",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "24806427.9025158",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9089285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.008928571428571508",
            "regression_width90": "1.1045706655096044",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "36374822.2599641",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9857142857142857",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.005714285714285672",
            "regression_width98": "1.7592114744037344",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "68130934.72916716"
          }
        }
      ],
      "sha256": "a2d75c8c21ec9afee0c06460312194fa68327bcbae4105609c9c6129d2088250",
      "cdn_key": "timestral-02-baselines-a2d75c8c21ec.png",
      "width": 1781,
      "height": 900,
      "source_line": null,
      "title": null,
      "subtitle": null
    },
    "03-adaptation.png": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 1,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "1",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "primary_point_baseline": "zero",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.0009822558569604187",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0031292375100088854",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.0049764351915462255",
            "pinball_vs_base": "-0.002296517195778177",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0056999313065177115",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.0006604031057706602",
            "mae_vs_primary": "-0.002173262654629534",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.012949505792781923",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.007871750681074267",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "-0.0002501710569409177",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "-0.005295599712433448",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.003453655348694132",
            "mae": "0.014755833859366352",
            "rmse": "0.019574884685986876",
            "mean_pinball": "0.005193014789235616",
            "directional_hit_rate": "0.4957417582417582",
            "positive_return_rate": "0.5160714285714285",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "n_directions": "559.0",
            "coverage50": "0.43392857142857144",
            "width50": "0.019180002802750097",
            "coverage80": "0.7285714285714286",
            "width80": "0.039742088949839986",
            "coverage90": "0.8374999999999998",
            "width90": "0.05425713996768795",
            "coverage98": "0.9625",
            "width98": "0.09220072468410113",
            "mae_log_bps": "147.5583385936635",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 1,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "1",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "primary_point_baseline": "zero",
            "mae_vs_base": "-0.0026588873898008383",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.016462795451971737",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.009887347690982286",
            "pinball_vs_base": "-0.004988105690047447",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0158288923667743",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.006145979965851243",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.004890734430840686",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.03338522640222886",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.03699880520456559",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "-0.010596102570928467",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "-0.039544183126836045",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.019148837190957235",
            "mae": "0.008806365652684186",
            "rmse": "0.011620089950313855",
            "mean_pinball": "0.003054754845564911",
            "directional_hit_rate": "0.525",
            "positive_return_rate": "0.5416666666666666",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "n_directions": "120.0",
            "coverage50": "0.5083333333333333",
            "width50": "0.013182789199830342",
            "coverage80": "0.7666666666666666",
            "width80": "0.026265821159662056",
            "coverage90": "0.8833333333333333",
            "width90": "0.03485870401685436",
            "coverage98": "0.9666666666666667",
            "width98": "0.0551962476534148",
            "mae_log_bps": "88.06365652684187",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": 1,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "1",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "primary_point_baseline": "persistence",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.0073262817266355595",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0030243149119352393",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.019832435529848202",
            "pinball_vs_base": "0.005606326836673463",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.004440333900856844",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.016244850574154403",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.19492947768855654",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "0.07213037813099707",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.3482998035246112",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "0.1975149702292243",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "0.06668731163440754",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.35833024229254645",
            "mae": "0.20431389669414593",
            "rmse": "0.26985974316369365",
            "mean_pinball": "0.0704005165748081",
            "directional_hit_rate": "",
            "positive_return_rate": "",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "n_directions": "",
            "coverage50": "0.4589285714285714",
            "width50": "0.3222501976149423",
            "coverage80": "0.8232142857142856",
            "width80": "0.6763699718884059",
            "coverage90": "0.9285714285714287",
            "width90": "0.9355103135108946",
            "coverage98": "0.9928571428571429",
            "width98": "1.5316857797758918",
            "mae_log_bps": "",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": 1,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "1",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "primary_point_baseline": "persistence",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.018485682045557006",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0014426558745799926",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.046364583059534184",
            "pinball_vs_base": "0.01128116003801379",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.004593649291079977",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.03161174621202516",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.11919163012979021",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "0.00590905497809602",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.22315704710462822",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "0.10470810099985499",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "0.015512759396647624",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.1896927672057406",
            "mae": "0.19358686296306674",
            "rmse": "0.2519004926867709",
            "mean_pinball": "0.06741970141597298",
            "directional_hit_rate": "",
            "positive_return_rate": "",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "n_directions": "",
            "coverage50": "0.4916666666666667",
            "width50": "0.3034485816955566",
            "coverage80": "0.7666666666666666",
            "width80": "0.6097951730092367",
            "coverage90": "0.8916666666666666",
            "width90": "0.813184674580892",
            "coverage98": "0.9916666666666667",
            "width98": "1.2587570349375408",
            "mae_log_bps": "",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": 1,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": "1",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "primary_point_baseline": "har_log",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.000643110664019659",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.005186142111503722",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.00677374849447982",
            "pinball_vs_base": "0.000625998732767966",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.004579291951356447",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.006503261767920875",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.014233097617525392",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.003480601425889816",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.028076464807140055",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "0.01318725590729176",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "0.001238301171085295",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.022909459181765447",
            "mae": "0.298436423383707",
            "rmse": "0.37663574043530473",
            "mean_pinball": "0.10100431415060362",
            "directional_hit_rate": "",
            "positive_return_rate": "",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "n_directions": "",
            "coverage50": "0.4910714285714285",
            "width50": "0.5035451395171029",
            "coverage80": "0.8160714285714287",
            "width80": "0.9567384132317134",
            "coverage90": "0.9178571428571429",
            "width90": "1.2427603964294707",
            "coverage98": "0.9857142857142857",
            "width98": "1.8367459569658549",
            "mae_log_bps": "",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": 1,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": "1",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "primary_point_baseline": "har_log",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.010571992395809379",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0049262763489435705",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.02816218111704026",
            "pinball_vs_base": "0.008487354566125593",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.006025983666439906",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.024426326484217383",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.0001531201504242722",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.029438235043817193",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.02595284042633685",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "-0.012687005051869704",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "-0.03919680237484442",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.011815043761355316",
            "mae": "0.32604368082834206",
            "rmse": "0.4098996840654143",
            "mean_pinball": "0.11157963236258456",
            "directional_hit_rate": "",
            "positive_return_rate": "",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "n_directions": "",
            "coverage50": "0.45",
            "width50": "0.5274163524309794",
            "coverage80": "0.775",
            "width80": "1.0047909796237946",
            "coverage90": "0.8916666666666667",
            "width90": "1.3061303893725078",
            "coverage98": "0.975",
            "width98": "1.9307037611802418",
            "mae_log_bps": "",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 5,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "5",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "primary_point_baseline": "zero",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.001707798763934541",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.000491966448239293",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.004240927255284201",
            "pinball_vs_base": "0.0020020156548127437",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0003011206465731386",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.005118742768739304",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.0034249787974945617",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.005446791671726088",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.011351270711089748",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "0.002161851705204395",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "-0.002683414995043537",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.005615317597042291",
            "mae": "0.013938139928972387",
            "rmse": "0.018321913725078305",
            "mean_pinball": "0.004917986633008146",
            "directional_hit_rate": "0.531456043956044",
            "positive_return_rate": "0.5482142857142857",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "n_directions": "559.0",
            "coverage50": "0.4696428571428571",
            "width50": "0.0192260723768933",
            "coverage80": "0.757142857142857",
            "width80": "0.039463213408764984",
            "coverage90": "0.8410714285714285",
            "width90": "0.05455828137263389",
            "coverage98": "0.9821428571428571",
            "width98": "0.09690520189303373",
            "mae_log_bps": "139.38139928972387",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 5,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "5",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "primary_point_baseline": "zero",
            "mae_vs_base": "-0.0021491238939998305",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.006188861210662068",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.0017828822907938742",
            "pinball_vs_base": "0.004362464543576842",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0017157987290409673",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.010301556395835874",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.021186732486581317",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.03166408961146388",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.05909410645741363",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "0.018250536240323172",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "0.005276530368337501",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.030429398613726993",
            "mae": "0.008352588725832902",
            "rmse": "0.011122987797610376",
            "mean_pinball": "0.002888741714533303",
            "directional_hit_rate": "0.6083333333333333",
            "positive_return_rate": "0.6083333333333333",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "n_directions": "120.0",
            "coverage50": "0.525",
            "width50": "0.01319903155672364",
            "coverage80": "0.8166666666666668",
            "width80": "0.026288334819643447",
            "coverage90": "0.8916666666666666",
            "width90": "0.03538293632057806",
            "coverage98": "0.9666666666666667",
            "width98": "0.059024085709825154",
            "mae_log_bps": "83.52588725832902",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": 5,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "primary_point_baseline": "rolling20",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.0013841935756830031",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.011498627674943555",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.014790747557051372",
            "pinball_vs_base": "0.0011813705344668587",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.010034546152708058",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.013096211011320656",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.03360479794706001",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.008401230787624432",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.07312070498135782",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "0.045300823935401795",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "0.00853465565184753",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.08234887647676364",
            "mae": "0.24009769645750373",
            "rmse": "0.3294332446719847",
            "mean_pinball": "0.08336465104358266",
            "directional_hit_rate": "",
            "positive_return_rate": "",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "n_directions": "",
            "coverage50": "0.507142857142857",
            "width50": "0.3897376384053911",
            "coverage80": "0.8410714285714285",
            "width80": "0.8046172380447388",
            "coverage90": "0.9285714285714286",
            "width90": "1.102731108665466",
            "coverage98": "0.9874999999999999",
            "width98": "1.7954458117485046",
            "mae_log_bps": "",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": 5,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_volume",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "primary_point_baseline": "rolling20",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.0078071024055962335",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.016085449284540684",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.03263479229454383",
            "pinball_vs_base": "-0.0020719030601830855",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.023634507004030986",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.022165196727815164",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.04933083072145302",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.08726093342995743",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.15478564281180157",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "0.0570999832507861",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "-0.062165971649690545",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.1585423960429567",
            "mae": "0.20445880672010588",
            "rmse": "0.257976222725611",
            "mean_pinball": "0.07091671160143034",
            "directional_hit_rate": "",
            "positive_return_rate": "",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "n_directions": "",
            "coverage50": "0.525",
            "width50": "0.3875463962554932",
            "coverage80": "0.85",
            "width80": "0.7574821631113688",
            "coverage90": "0.9083333333333333",
            "width90": "0.9984124183654787",
            "coverage98": "1.0",
            "width98": "1.5603111267089844",
            "mae_log_bps": "",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": 5,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": "5",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "primary_point_baseline": "har_log",
            "mae_vs_base": "-5.536483989853387e-05",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.007958100803618471",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.008601926613159028",
            "pinball_vs_base": "-0.00011745759909884532",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.007602354052536404",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.008346294385269046",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.022579976627490166",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "0.006850492882284048",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.033365495467164275",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "0.014656862863619216",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "0.0009540561195183974",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.024753228828166985",
            "mae": "0.3017556844085984",
            "rmse": "0.3730650673841209",
            "mean_pinball": "0.10149774535087008",
            "directional_hit_rate": "",
            "positive_return_rate": "",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "n_directions": "",
            "coverage50": "0.49821428571428567",
            "width50": "0.5172541081905365",
            "coverage80": "0.7999999999999998",
            "width80": "1.0033621055739268",
            "coverage90": "0.9267857142857141",
            "width90": "1.3042789139917919",
            "coverage98": "0.9928571428571429",
            "width98": "1.9331361276762828",
            "mae_log_bps": "",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": 5,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": "5",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "primary_point_baseline": "har_log",
            "mae_vs_base": "-0.005999135404648211",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.028486331753733368",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.014384168891617326",
            "pinball_vs_base": "-0.004438305587986857",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.02069195038041007",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.012736763198585336",
            "mae_vs_primary": "-0.050770619714124963",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.09217209261941184",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "-0.01644092936935161",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "-0.039360340766603",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "-0.06850769438953645",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "-0.00875759021531223",
            "mae": "0.34258845997908777",
            "rmse": "0.431819381984514",
            "mean_pinball": "0.11682122676675148",
            "directional_hit_rate": "",
            "positive_return_rate": "",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "n_directions": "",
            "coverage50": "0.5166666666666667",
            "width50": "0.5784703056017557",
            "coverage80": "0.8083333333333332",
            "width80": "1.1281271696090698",
            "coverage90": "0.9",
            "width90": "1.4690133531888325",
            "coverage98": "0.9916666666666667",
            "width98": "2.185718836386999",
            "mae_log_bps": "",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        }
      ],
      "sha256": "11bc8b69357cf02075f771f8192799ddec580c331dca3e75dc92381d8fcdf1f9",
      "cdn_key": "timestral-03-adaptation-11bc8b69357c.png",
      "width": 1742,
      "height": 1045,
      "source_line": null,
      "title": null,
      "subtitle": null
    },
    "04-returns-and-range.png": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "source": "base_feasibility.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "median"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "median",
            "comparator_kind": "point_only",
            "model_space_units": "daily log return",
            "point_rule": "marginal daily q50",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "base_mae": "0.013967299550330046",
            "comparator_mae": "0.013883494450334774",
            "base_rmse": "0.018346885592027434",
            "comparator_rmse": "0.01826925095501607",
            "mae_skill": "-0.005492925568990329",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.008721298781247642",
            "mae_ci_high": "-0.0023739277876859964",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "-0.005472452656508919",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.00870031929807938",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "-0.002346022594753098",
            "base_original_unit_mae": "0.014061341138253917",
            "comparator_original_unit_mae": "0.01397741743395052",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": "",
            "base_mean_pinball": "",
            "comparator_mean_pinball": "",
            "base_directional_hit_rate": "0.531456043956044",
            "base_positive_return_rate": "0.5482142857142857",
            "base_zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "base_n_directions": "559.0",
            "base_coverage50": "0.46428571428571436",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.03571428571428564",
            "base_width50": "0.01898328873794545",
            "base_original_unit_width50": "0.01900587695459513",
            "base_coverage80": "0.7535714285714284",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0464285714285716",
            "base_width80": "0.039750236136439625",
            "base_original_unit_width80": "0.03981118455989917",
            "base_coverage90": "0.8482142857142857",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.051785714285714324",
            "base_width90": "0.05527939600205072",
            "base_original_unit_width90": "0.055381307976444354",
            "base_coverage98": "0.9803571428571428",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.00035714285714283367",
            "base_width98": "0.09543822969509179",
            "base_original_unit_width98": "0.09564466251144858",
            "comparator_directional_hit_rate": "0.5419823597455177",
            "comparator_positive_return_rate": "0.5482142857142857",
            "comparator_zero_prediction_ties": "2.0",
            "comparator_n_directions": "557.0",
            "comparator_coverage50": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap50": "",
            "comparator_width50": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width50": "",
            "comparator_coverage80": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap80": "",
            "comparator_width80": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width80": "",
            "comparator_coverage90": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap90": "",
            "comparator_width90": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width90": "",
            "comparator_coverage98": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap98": "",
            "comparator_width98": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width98": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "base_feasibility.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "median"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "median",
            "comparator_kind": "point_only",
            "model_space_units": "daily log return",
            "point_rule": "marginal daily q50",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "base_mae": "0.008333501495340482",
            "comparator_mae": "0.008351975555980403",
            "base_rmse": "0.011114774264544158",
            "comparator_rmse": "0.01108157417358614",
            "mae_skill": "0.002661124089270809",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.0026597391116945793",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.00967759411166573",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.002652843295243549",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.0026445394346577573",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.009647136379969135",
            "base_original_unit_mae": "0.00838554781522291",
            "comparator_original_unit_mae": "0.008404070269999715",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": "",
            "base_mean_pinball": "",
            "comparator_mean_pinball": "",
            "base_directional_hit_rate": "0.6083333333333333",
            "base_positive_return_rate": "0.6083333333333333",
            "base_zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "base_n_directions": "120.0",
            "base_coverage50": "0.5416666666666666",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.04166666666666663",
            "base_width50": "0.01320186997569825",
            "base_original_unit_width50": "0.013215240384213602",
            "base_coverage80": "0.8083333333333332",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.008333333333333193",
            "base_width80": "0.02662807410814792",
            "base_original_unit_width80": "0.026645085806378237",
            "base_coverage90": "0.8833333333333333",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.01666666666666672",
            "base_width90": "0.03597590941935083",
            "base_original_unit_width90": "0.03598717481663619",
            "base_coverage98": "0.9666666666666667",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.013333333333333308",
            "base_width98": "0.05917686838656666",
            "base_original_unit_width98": "0.059138765329600856",
            "comparator_directional_hit_rate": "0.6083333333333333",
            "comparator_positive_return_rate": "0.6083333333333333",
            "comparator_zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "comparator_n_directions": "120.0",
            "comparator_coverage50": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap50": "",
            "comparator_width50": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width50": "",
            "comparator_coverage80": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap80": "",
            "comparator_width80": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width80": "",
            "comparator_coverage90": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap90": "",
            "comparator_width90": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width90": "",
            "comparator_coverage98": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap98": "",
            "comparator_width98": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width98": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/baseline_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "median",
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "median",
            "mae_skill": "-0.0037579909194721223",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.006185229753091605",
            "mae_ci_high": "-0.0013576182376378453",
            "scope": "primary",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/baseline_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "median",
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "median",
            "mae_skill": "0.0005152666171339693",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.0041702643223477135",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.00698087923519979",
            "scope": "primary",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "base_feasibility.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "har_log"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "har_log",
            "comparator_kind": "quantile_distribution",
            "model_space_units": "log daily Parkinson range sigma",
            "point_rule": "marginal daily q50",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "base_mae": "0.30176576130257143",
            "comparator_mae": "0.308828018624375",
            "base_rmse": "0.37202607722454534",
            "comparator_rmse": "0.3820823316843677",
            "mae_skill": "0.02260168075838937",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.0001606975530958807",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.038493701651860626",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.016895562203764456",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.007309827025766085",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.031734804418765986",
            "base_original_unit_mae": "0.00419549891366002",
            "comparator_original_unit_mae": "0.004258585806483591",
            "pinball_skill": "0.01476665477858498",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.004642226058498926",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.030379428104967483",
            "base_mean_pinball": "0.1014605612352317",
            "comparator_mean_pinball": "0.10305594303373734",
            "base_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "base_positive_return_rate": "",
            "base_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "base_n_directions": "",
            "base_coverage50": "0.5160714285714285",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.016071428571428514",
            "base_width50": "0.5362041754381249",
            "base_original_unit_width50": "0.007086421043918009",
            "base_coverage80": "0.8160714285714284",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.016071428571428403",
            "base_width80": "1.0344686010053394",
            "base_original_unit_width80": "0.014454544422355414",
            "base_coverage90": "0.9339285714285712",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.0339285714285712",
            "base_width90": "1.342739871144232",
            "base_original_unit_width90": "0.01974277924126751",
            "base_coverage98": "0.9964285714285713",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.016428571428571348",
            "base_width98": "1.983185016257554",
            "base_original_unit_width98": "0.03360117558749583",
            "comparator_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "comparator_positive_return_rate": "",
            "comparator_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "comparator_n_directions": "",
            "comparator_coverage50": "0.4875",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.012500000000000011",
            "comparator_width50": "0.5262638267520535",
            "comparator_original_unit_width50": "0.0066014472174239",
            "comparator_coverage80": "0.8071428571428572",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0071428571428571175",
            "comparator_width80": "0.993885288428482",
            "comparator_original_unit_width80": "0.013294455807801062",
            "comparator_coverage90": "0.9321428571428572",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.03214285714285714",
            "comparator_width90": "1.3071950225214108",
            "comparator_original_unit_width90": "0.01861635476146558",
            "comparator_coverage98": "0.9928571428571428",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.01285714285714279",
            "comparator_width98": "1.9243657651060178",
            "comparator_original_unit_width98": "0.03183838467361487"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "base_feasibility.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "har_log"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "har_log",
            "comparator_kind": "quantile_distribution",
            "model_space_units": "log daily Parkinson range sigma",
            "point_rule": "marginal daily q50",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "base_mae": "0.3401175422195833",
            "comparator_mae": "0.3260553066949166",
            "base_rmse": "0.43006067388796704",
            "comparator_rmse": "0.41576754652595854",
            "mae_skill": "-0.04460817139356391",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.10226426127557701",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.006581136147193075",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "-0.047147928985858435",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.10730594969886444",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.0065818136834105345",
            "base_original_unit_mae": "0.0024458907720353884",
            "comparator_original_unit_mae": "0.002335208516828427",
            "pinball_skill": "-0.034853360983351823",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.07608810157973188",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.007779081902643043",
            "base_mean_pinball": "0.11625019762748423",
            "comparator_mean_pinball": "0.1123843133143589",
            "base_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "base_positive_return_rate": "",
            "base_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "base_n_directions": "",
            "base_coverage50": "0.525",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.025000000000000022",
            "base_width50": "0.6003759026529166",
            "base_original_unit_width50": "0.0043718300680569274",
            "base_coverage80": "0.8249999999999998",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0249999999999998",
            "base_width80": "1.1640839179355835",
            "base_original_unit_width80": "0.00899684134593545",
            "base_coverage90": "0.9166666666666666",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.016666666666666607",
            "base_width90": "1.5167452236023333",
            "base_original_unit_width90": "0.012414675781965595",
            "base_coverage98": "0.9916666666666667",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.011666666666666714",
            "base_width98": "2.2549573302265",
            "base_original_unit_width98": "0.021712583420468026",
            "comparator_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "comparator_positive_return_rate": "",
            "comparator_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "comparator_n_directions": "",
            "comparator_coverage50": "0.5416666666666666",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.04166666666666663",
            "comparator_width50": "0.5959154883805834",
            "comparator_original_unit_width50": "0.004256542806048137",
            "comparator_coverage80": "0.8166666666666668",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.01666666666666672",
            "comparator_width80": "1.10568167963675",
            "comparator_original_unit_width80": "0.008401225033303115",
            "comparator_coverage90": "0.9416666666666668",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.04166666666666674",
            "comparator_width90": "1.4906785320013334",
            "comparator_original_unit_width90": "0.011761316190941512",
            "comparator_coverage98": "0.9833333333333334",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.0033333333333334103",
            "comparator_width98": "2.1670379252603333",
            "comparator_original_unit_width98": "0.021726441859888698"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/baseline_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "har_log",
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "har_log",
            "mae_skill": "0.022579976627490166",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.006850492882284048",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.033365495467164275",
            "scope": "primary",
            "pinball_skill": "0.014656862863619216",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.0009540561195183974",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.024753228828166985"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/baseline_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "har_log",
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "log_range_vol",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_range_vol",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "har_log",
            "mae_skill": "-0.050770619714124963",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.09217209261941184",
            "mae_ci_high": "-0.01644092936935161",
            "scope": "primary",
            "pinball_skill": "-0.039360340766603",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.06850769438953645",
            "pinball_ci_high": "-0.00875759021531223"
          }
        }
      ],
      "sha256": "99dcd28814385e9142115ddd17fdbd204ed2c54e015fe4ae6e19116bd2c01be0",
      "cdn_key": "timestral-04-returns-and-range-99dcd2881438.png",
      "width": 1964,
      "height": 945,
      "source_line": null,
      "title": null,
      "subtitle": null
    },
    "05-return-intervals.png": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "source": "base_feasibility.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 1,
            "comparator": "median"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "1",
            "comparator": "median",
            "comparator_kind": "point_only",
            "model_space_units": "daily log return",
            "point_rule": "marginal daily q50",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "base_mae": "0.01477142047992098",
            "comparator_mae": "0.014705336414955802",
            "base_rmse": "0.019552620244240194",
            "comparator_rmse": "0.019526226381356315",
            "mae_skill": "-0.004418912370387218",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.010233495840231097",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.0011617515514147632",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "-0.004408041185360272",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.010264007753904974",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.001173145950119662",
            "base_original_unit_mae": "0.014809181678264454",
            "comparator_original_unit_mae": "0.014742975330330347",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": "",
            "base_mean_pinball": "",
            "comparator_mean_pinball": "",
            "base_directional_hit_rate": "0.5153846153846154",
            "base_positive_return_rate": "0.5160714285714285",
            "base_zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "base_n_directions": "559.0",
            "base_coverage50": "0.43392857142857144",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.06607142857142856",
            "base_width50": "0.01918536209559382",
            "base_original_unit_width50": "0.019208473895557472",
            "base_coverage80": "0.7357142857142858",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.06428571428571428",
            "base_width80": "0.03980492811117563",
            "base_original_unit_width80": "0.03986444050157541",
            "base_coverage90": "0.8517857142857143",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.048214285714285765",
            "base_width90": "0.05484731910317946",
            "base_original_unit_width90": "0.054943088214224965",
            "base_coverage98": "0.9625",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.01749999999999996",
            "base_width98": "0.09269028789629696",
            "base_original_unit_width98": "0.09288584575386905",
            "comparator_directional_hit_rate": "0.5079598033545402",
            "comparator_positive_return_rate": "0.5160714285714285",
            "comparator_zero_prediction_ties": "2.0",
            "comparator_n_directions": "557.0",
            "comparator_coverage50": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap50": "",
            "comparator_width50": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width50": "",
            "comparator_coverage80": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap80": "",
            "comparator_width80": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width80": "",
            "comparator_coverage90": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap90": "",
            "comparator_width90": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width90": "",
            "comparator_coverage98": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap98": "",
            "comparator_width98": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width98": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 1,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "1",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "primary_point_baseline": "zero",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.0009822558569604187",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0031292375100088854",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.0049764351915462255",
            "pinball_vs_base": "-0.002296517195778177",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0056999313065177115",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.0006604031057706602",
            "mae_vs_primary": "-0.002173262654629534",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.012949505792781923",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.007871750681074267",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "-0.0002501710569409177",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "-0.005295599712433448",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.003453655348694132",
            "mae": "0.014755833859366352",
            "rmse": "0.019574884685986876",
            "mean_pinball": "0.005193014789235616",
            "directional_hit_rate": "0.4957417582417582",
            "positive_return_rate": "0.5160714285714285",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "n_directions": "559.0",
            "coverage50": "0.43392857142857144",
            "width50": "0.019180002802750097",
            "coverage80": "0.7285714285714286",
            "width80": "0.039742088949839986",
            "coverage90": "0.8374999999999998",
            "width90": "0.05425713996768795",
            "coverage98": "0.9625",
            "width98": "0.09220072468410113",
            "mae_log_bps": "147.5583385936635",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "base_feasibility.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 5,
            "comparator": "median"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "median",
            "comparator_kind": "point_only",
            "model_space_units": "daily log return",
            "point_rule": "marginal daily q50",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "base_mae": "0.013967299550330046",
            "comparator_mae": "0.013883494450334774",
            "base_rmse": "0.018346885592027434",
            "comparator_rmse": "0.01826925095501607",
            "mae_skill": "-0.005492925568990329",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.008721298781247642",
            "mae_ci_high": "-0.0023739277876859964",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "-0.005472452656508919",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.00870031929807938",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "-0.002346022594753098",
            "base_original_unit_mae": "0.014061341138253917",
            "comparator_original_unit_mae": "0.01397741743395052",
            "pinball_skill": "",
            "pinball_ci_low": "",
            "pinball_ci_high": "",
            "base_mean_pinball": "",
            "comparator_mean_pinball": "",
            "base_directional_hit_rate": "0.531456043956044",
            "base_positive_return_rate": "0.5482142857142857",
            "base_zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "base_n_directions": "559.0",
            "base_coverage50": "0.46428571428571436",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.03571428571428564",
            "base_width50": "0.01898328873794545",
            "base_original_unit_width50": "0.01900587695459513",
            "base_coverage80": "0.7535714285714284",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0464285714285716",
            "base_width80": "0.039750236136439625",
            "base_original_unit_width80": "0.03981118455989917",
            "base_coverage90": "0.8482142857142857",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.051785714285714324",
            "base_width90": "0.05527939600205072",
            "base_original_unit_width90": "0.055381307976444354",
            "base_coverage98": "0.9803571428571428",
            "base_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.00035714285714283367",
            "base_width98": "0.09543822969509179",
            "base_original_unit_width98": "0.09564466251144858",
            "comparator_directional_hit_rate": "0.5419823597455177",
            "comparator_positive_return_rate": "0.5482142857142857",
            "comparator_zero_prediction_ties": "2.0",
            "comparator_n_directions": "557.0",
            "comparator_coverage50": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap50": "",
            "comparator_width50": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width50": "",
            "comparator_coverage80": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap80": "",
            "comparator_width80": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width80": "",
            "comparator_coverage90": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap90": "",
            "comparator_width90": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width90": "",
            "comparator_coverage98": "",
            "comparator_absolute_calibration_gap98": "",
            "comparator_width98": "",
            "comparator_original_unit_width98": ""
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "extension_results/holdout/summary.csv",
          "selector": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": 5,
            "scope": "primary"
          },
          "row": {
            "training_target": "return",
            "seed": "ensemble",
            "policy": "selected",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "return",
            "horizon": "5",
            "scope": "primary",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "primary_point_baseline": "zero",
            "mae_vs_base": "0.001707798763934541",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.000491966448239293",
            "mae_vs_base_ci_high": "0.004240927255284201",
            "pinball_vs_base": "0.0020020156548127437",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_low": "-0.0003011206465731386",
            "pinball_vs_base_ci_high": "0.005118742768739304",
            "mae_vs_primary": "0.0034249787974945617",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_low": "-0.005446791671726088",
            "mae_vs_primary_ci_high": "0.011351270711089748",
            "pinball_vs_canonical": "0.002161851705204395",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_low": "-0.002683414995043537",
            "pinball_vs_canonical_ci_high": "0.005615317597042291",
            "mae": "0.013938139928972387",
            "rmse": "0.018321913725078305",
            "mean_pinball": "0.004917986633008146",
            "directional_hit_rate": "0.531456043956044",
            "positive_return_rate": "0.5482142857142857",
            "zero_prediction_ties": "0.0",
            "n_directions": "559.0",
            "coverage50": "0.4696428571428571",
            "width50": "0.0192260723768933",
            "coverage80": "0.757142857142857",
            "width80": "0.039463213408764984",
            "coverage90": "0.8410714285714285",
            "width90": "0.05455828137263389",
            "coverage98": "0.9821428571428571",
            "width98": "0.09690520189303373",
            "mae_log_bps": "139.38139928972387",
            "study": "holdout"
          }
        }
      ],
      "sha256": "fcc66bd1334d80edb00f528e4ccc60f4b1d6896107dc54a00aa2edfb2c561af0",
      "cdn_key": "timestral-05-return-intervals-fcc66bd1334d.png",
      "width": 1738,
      "height": 946,
      "source_line": null,
      "title": null,
      "subtitle": null
    },
    "06-transfer.png": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.24088598538929934",
            "regression_mae": "0.2532025896776644",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.328157916669859",
            "regression_rmse": "0.3452269536642332",
            "mae_skill": "0.04696402867287688",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.0207603966297155",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.06979312312540413",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.03797313233881692",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.013703107856082213",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.061278325581669305",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "8259859.723660715",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "8370301.217029634",
            "pinball_skill": "0.0450184247522248",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.02409166385692125",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.06342311179803425",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.0835345718680551",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.08758983645193016",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.5160714285714285",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.016071428571428514",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3935657416071211",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "11488543.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.8375",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.03749999999999998",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.817565415586744",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "25474864.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9339285714285713",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.03392857142857131",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.1194145151547024",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "37235464.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9874999999999999",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.007499999999999951",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.810767556939806",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "72279520.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.5142857142857142",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.014285714285714235",
            "regression_width50": "0.3926809936868242",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "11054728.86101222",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8071428571428572",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0071428571428571175",
            "regression_width80": "0.7984961963846665",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "24806427.9025158",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9089285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.008928571428571508",
            "regression_width90": "1.1045706655096044",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "36374822.2599641",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9857142857142857",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.005714285714285672",
            "regression_width98": "1.7592114744037344",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "68130934.72916716"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.20610261285560103",
            "regression_mae": "0.20859166097355367",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.25788696468107725",
            "regression_rmse": "0.2598314695524074",
            "mae_skill": "0.011553867874867748",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.05682093341820819",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.0770985285118974",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.015348413441675776",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.06240734702401497",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.0798180870849852",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "9222738.749999998",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "9406863.214013746",
            "pinball_skill": "0.003045402938958867",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.05032968652505105",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.060905459844315356",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.07077887803273193",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.07101477642363481",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.5333333333333333",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.033333333333333326",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3898142814636231",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "18130986.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.8249999999999998",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0249999999999998",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.7653465906778972",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "36812812.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9166666666666666",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.016666666666666607",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.0074741204579671",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "50040556.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "1.0",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.020000000000000018",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.5573328495025633",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "85383416.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.5750000000000001",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width50": "0.4181220629992306",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "18574407.100325268",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8583333333333334",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.05833333333333335",
            "regression_width80": "0.7875464978282665",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "36662545.819774695",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9416666666666665",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.04166666666666652",
            "regression_width90": "1.041019334807785",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "50345254.4429965",
            "regression_coverage98": "1.0",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.020000000000000018",
            "regression_width98": "1.5859848211026",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "92070290.35138041"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "external_TLT",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "external_TLT",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "1",
            "n_forecasts": "40",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.3188588878718862",
            "regression_mae": "0.33477436015684797",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.3897939440547841",
            "regression_rmse": "0.40567582484766207",
            "mae_skill": "0.04754089374558157",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.050095908229835735",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.15029453579592505",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.05233015624392834",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.04308955907703784",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.16580435136375624",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "9969872.899999999",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "10520407.46647017",
            "pinball_skill": "0.053639234156921844",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.04754425389805153",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.15551520032593175",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.10742816372434598",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.11351713596098012",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.35",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.15000000000000002",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.4714134693145752",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "14651829.65",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.75",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.050000000000000044",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.9026895523071289",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "29264978.45",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.85",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.050000000000000044",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.1685506343841552",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "39465112.85",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.95",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.030000000000000027",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.7510538339614867",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "66814737.9",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.4",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.09999999999999998",
            "regression_width50": "0.46731210719314625",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "15670478.812242419",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.625",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.17500000000000004",
            "regression_width80": "0.8227142503272805",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "28776358.390343748",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.825",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width90": "1.0892646622069442",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "39797693.513902746",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.07999999999999996",
            "regression_width98": "1.6393637031325348",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "71303032.95135632"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "external_GLD",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "external_GLD",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "1",
            "n_forecasts": "40",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.37566995369652756",
            "regression_mae": "0.36569444787289884",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.44854246622456556",
            "regression_rmse": "0.4478393606937326",
            "mae_skill": "-0.027278253420724097",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.10133691428561627",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.020809032093737617",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "-0.02865223202667244",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.12540184090706252",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.017175401576614492",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "4455779.037499996",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "4331667.10650219",
            "pinball_skill": "-0.008552117106387369",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.059320819270041104",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.030177595908349723",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.12521919465197218",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.12415738614602834",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.375",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.125",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.5354809761047363",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "5861598.025",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.675",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.125",
            "tsfm_width80": "1.0552101135253906",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "12332970.1625",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.875",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.025000000000000022",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.388611125946045",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "17302098.225",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "1.0",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.020000000000000018",
            "tsfm_width98": "2.108321261405945",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "31548512.825",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.375",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.125",
            "regression_width50": "0.5581569969197486",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "5756769.421426769",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.725",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width80": "1.0729125089023779",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "12015093.027034676",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.825",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width90": "1.3573883493156098",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "15824957.58873443",
            "regression_coverage98": "1.0",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.020000000000000018",
            "regression_width98": "2.0995347992891134",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "28577994.681063205"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "external_USO",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "base"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "base",
            "panel": "external_USO",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "1",
            "n_forecasts": "40",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.5197182931183721",
            "regression_mae": "0.532139995608292",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.7139381740020634",
            "regression_rmse": "0.7457273721248341",
            "mae_skill": "0.0233429221491247",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.030958211107126977",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.06744604337494174",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.027603118217632838",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.053355803792295854",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.12773765820924377",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "8415387.6875",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "8654272.597084956",
            "pinball_skill": "0.0398311515490567",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.02368550875932542",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.09196312466933128",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.18580940575115804",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.19351742774297198",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.4",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.09999999999999998",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.7011503458023072",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "10439973.8",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.725",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.07500000000000007",
            "tsfm_width80": "1.3985610008239746",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "25722600.3125",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.825",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.07500000000000007",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.8645893335342407",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "43335347.2875",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.925",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.05499999999999994",
            "tsfm_width98": "2.9106218338012697",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "155811115.225",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.4",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.09999999999999998",
            "regression_width50": "0.622995748927384",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "7285202.104190263",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.725",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width80": "1.2185252674069358",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "16673656.706445146",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.85",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.050000000000000044",
            "regression_width90": "1.6941222087593844",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "28100040.22347427",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.07999999999999996",
            "regression_width98": "2.8261676905579516",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "69892229.53319255"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "stocks",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "14",
            "n_forecasts": "560",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.24009769645750373",
            "regression_mae": "0.2532025896776644",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.3294332446719847",
            "regression_rmse": "0.3452269536642332",
            "mae_skill": "0.04942854820953585",
            "mae_ci_low": "0.027590771160308024",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.07113393790979575",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.04067560094066378",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "0.02093961952430054",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.062142110412230285",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "8160592.483035714",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "8370301.217029634",
            "pinball_skill": "0.04689951408215883",
            "pinball_ci_low": "0.029975822742273762",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.06433534788351748",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.08336465104358266",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.08758983645193016",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.507142857142857",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.0071428571428570065",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3897376384053911",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "11134145.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.8410714285714285",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.041071428571428426",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.8046172380447388",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "24557184.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9285714285714286",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.02857142857142858",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.102731108665466",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "35895316.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.9874999999999999",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.007499999999999951",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.7954458117485046",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "69820856.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.5142857142857142",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.014285714285714235",
            "regression_width50": "0.3926809936868242",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "11054728.86101222",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8071428571428572",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.0071428571428571175",
            "regression_width80": "0.7984961963846665",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "24806427.9025158",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9089285714285715",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.008928571428571508",
            "regression_width90": "1.1045706655096044",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "36374822.2599641",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9857142857142857",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.005714285714285672",
            "regression_width98": "1.7592114744037344",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "68130934.72916716"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "etfs",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "3",
            "n_forecasts": "120",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.20445880672010588",
            "regression_mae": "0.20859166097355367",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.257976222725611",
            "regression_rmse": "0.2598314695524074",
            "mae_skill": "0.01951252129250018",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.02796616469186892",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.06998485465667677",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.024739003384855535",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.02906847315425848",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.07328604528332656",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "9141434.416666664",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "9406863.214013746",
            "pinball_skill": "0.0011247156417292607",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.03355033833888888",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.044248079814995074",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.07091671160143034",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.07101477642363481",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.525",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.025000000000000022",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.3875463962554932",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "17756270.0",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.85",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.04999999999999993",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.7574821631113688",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "35887076.0",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.9083333333333333",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.008333333333333304",
            "tsfm_width90": "0.9984124183654787",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "48816656.0",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "1.0",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.020000000000000018",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.5603111267089844",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "84234072.0",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.5750000000000001",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width50": "0.4181220629992306",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "18574407.100325268",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.8583333333333334",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.05833333333333335",
            "regression_width80": "0.7875464978282665",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "36662545.819774695",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.9416666666666665",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.04166666666666652",
            "regression_width90": "1.041019334807785",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "50345254.4429965",
            "regression_coverage98": "1.0",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.020000000000000018",
            "regression_width98": "1.5859848211026",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "92070290.35138041"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "external_TLT",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "external_TLT",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "1",
            "n_forecasts": "40",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.3165399810878286",
            "regression_mae": "0.33477436015684797",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.385775650977487",
            "regression_rmse": "0.40567582484766207",
            "mae_skill": "0.0544676690905368",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.04118490387606314",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.15801061223287566",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "0.05743555735801864",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.03675404758202062",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.1739708868439011",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "9916161.999999998",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "10520407.46647017",
            "pinball_skill": "0.06186954772422004",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.036084805480699526",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.1675722476323755",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.10649388210012549",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.11351713596098012",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.4",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.09999999999999998",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.474871301651001",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "14819700.45",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.725",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.07500000000000007",
            "tsfm_width80": "0.902007007598877",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "29381816.9",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.85",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.050000000000000044",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.1677109718322753",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "39683516.2",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.95",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.030000000000000027",
            "tsfm_width98": "1.7804898500442505",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "69483847.5",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.4",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.09999999999999998",
            "regression_width50": "0.46731210719314625",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "15670478.812242419",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.625",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.17500000000000004",
            "regression_width80": "0.8227142503272805",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "28776358.390343748",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.825",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width90": "1.0892646622069442",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "39797693.513902746",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.07999999999999996",
            "regression_width98": "1.6393637031325348",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "71303032.95135632"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "external_GLD",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "external_GLD",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "1",
            "n_forecasts": "40",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.37464015232781417",
            "regression_mae": "0.36569444787289884",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.44830963405294993",
            "regression_rmse": "0.4478393606937326",
            "mae_skill": "-0.024462237550908927",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.07277989453854943",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.011827897345678543",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "-0.0186457613228328",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.08639031177890054",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.012456893023440538",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "4412434.337499997",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "4331667.10650219",
            "pinball_skill": "-0.006463967974192686",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.04525696523136315",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.026110162269813185",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.12495993551383575",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.12415738614602834",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.4",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.09999999999999998",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.5291980028152465",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "5701550.4125",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.675",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.125",
            "tsfm_width80": "1.0347028493881225",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "11893254.8625",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.875",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.025000000000000022",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.3592552661895752",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "16646123.675",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "1.0",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.020000000000000018",
            "tsfm_width98": "2.077817440032959",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "30591856.175",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.375",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.125",
            "regression_width50": "0.5581569969197486",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "5756769.421426769",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.725",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width80": "1.0729125089023779",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "12015093.027034676",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.825",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width90": "1.3573883493156098",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "15824957.58873443",
            "regression_coverage98": "1.0",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.020000000000000018",
            "regression_width98": "2.0995347992891134",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "28577994.681063205"
          }
        },
        {
          "source": "volume_regression_comparisons.csv",
          "selector": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "panel": "external_USO",
            "horizon": 5,
            "policy": "selected_ensemble"
          },
          "row": {
            "study": "holdout",
            "policy": "selected_ensemble",
            "panel": "external_USO",
            "target": "log_volume",
            "horizon": "5",
            "comparator": "conditional_volume_ols",
            "model_space_units": "log(1 + provider volume)",
            "interpretation": "Positive skill means TSFM lower loss than conditional-volume regression",
            "n_origins": "40",
            "n_assets": "1",
            "n_forecasts": "40",
            "tsfm_mae": "0.5279579870421001",
            "regression_mae": "0.532139995608292",
            "tsfm_rmse": "0.7201734958130278",
            "regression_rmse": "0.7457273721248341",
            "mae_skill": "0.007858850303878007",
            "mae_ci_low": "-0.07069567747552238",
            "mae_ci_high": "0.07828026598105477",
            "original_unit_mae_skill": "-0.009762683919097181",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_low": "-0.1796263360044913",
            "original_unit_mae_ci_high": "0.17668526568762818",
            "tsfm_original_unit_mae": "8738761.525",
            "regression_original_unit_mae": "8654272.597084956",
            "pinball_skill": "0.03307270604229651",
            "pinball_ci_low": "-0.03977724494019268",
            "pinball_ci_high": "0.1027604708036122",
            "tsfm_mean_pinball": "0.18711728274116732",
            "regression_mean_pinball": "0.19351742774297198",
            "tsfm_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "tsfm_positive_return_rate": "",
            "tsfm_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "tsfm_n_directions": "",
            "tsfm_coverage50": "0.4",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.09999999999999998",
            "tsfm_width50": "0.6896257877349854",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width50": "9602383.5375",
            "tsfm_coverage80": "0.7",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.10000000000000009",
            "tsfm_width80": "1.3631928443908692",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width80": "22914410.55",
            "tsfm_coverage90": "0.85",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.050000000000000044",
            "tsfm_width90": "1.816846776008606",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width90": "37680231.95",
            "tsfm_coverage98": "0.925",
            "tsfm_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.05499999999999994",
            "tsfm_width98": "2.856129503250122",
            "tsfm_original_unit_width98": "133720661.15",
            "regression_directional_hit_rate": "",
            "regression_positive_return_rate": "",
            "regression_zero_prediction_ties": "",
            "regression_n_directions": "",
            "regression_coverage50": "0.4",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap50": "0.09999999999999998",
            "regression_width50": "0.622995748927384",
            "regression_original_unit_width50": "7285202.104190263",
            "regression_coverage80": "0.725",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap80": "0.07500000000000007",
            "regression_width80": "1.2185252674069358",
            "regression_original_unit_width80": "16673656.706445146",
            "regression_coverage90": "0.85",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap90": "0.050000000000000044",
            "regression_width90": "1.6941222087593844",
            "regression_original_unit_width90": "28100040.22347427",
            "regression_coverage98": "0.9",
            "regression_absolute_calibration_gap98": "0.07999999999999996",
            "regression_width98": "2.8261676905579516",
            "regression_original_unit_width98": "69892229.53319255"
          }
        }
      ],
      "sha256": "fac4af67f8419442513decb8b44eca888dce6355bf8c4da55a904daa0a3db155",
      "cdn_key": "timestral-06-transfer-fac4af67f841.png",
      "width": 1741,
      "height": 959,
      "source_line": null,
      "title": null,
      "subtitle": null
    }
  }
}
