Latest Posts

The SaaSpocalypse Paradox

AI capex failure and AI replacing all software are mutually exclusive. Why the 2026 SaaSpocalypse is a $2 trillion pricing error, not an extinction event.

Don't Go Monolithic; The Agent Stack Is Stratifying

The enterprise AI agent stack is stratifying into six layers with different winners at each. Models commoditize; context — your organizational world model — compounds. A framework for agentic AI architecture decisions.

Where Mobile Money Goes Now

Apps overtook games in mobile IAP revenue for the first time in 2025, driven by $3.5B in GenAI growth. Analysis of Sensor Tower's State of Mobile 2026 report.

Variance Tax

Variance drain is the hidden cost of volatility: why a portfolio averaging +10% can lose money. The ½σ² formula explains the gap between paper and real returns.

Is Private Equity Just Beta With a Lockup?

AQR's 2026 data shows private equity returning 4.2% versus 3.9% for public equities. The 30bp illiquidity premium barely justifies years of lockup.

Britain's Strategic Limbo

Britain faces strategic isolation: locked out of EU defense cooperation, unwilling to join Trump's coalition. The mid-Atlantic bridge has nowhere to land.

The Rise of Middle Power Realism

At Davos 2026, Carney told allies to take down the signs of the liberal order. Middle powers are learning to navigate between giants without illusions.